Tracking Coronavirus Fatalities by Tracking Death Certificates, 06/13 Update

Tracking Coronavirus Fatalities by Tracking Death Certificates, 06/13 Update
New York Post

This is a continuing update to prior posts comparing coronavirus fatalities to weekly death certificate counts published by the CDC.  For a full explanation of the method, reference the first post (here).  Other posts are here and here,

For starters, here is the CDC chart that inspired me to create these charts:


The CDC cart is percentage of deaths caused by respiratory diseases.  Comparing percentages is useful for comparing across long periods of time where population growth can affect raw counts, but because this is relatively recent and especially because it is an off-season virus, comparing absolute numbers of deaths is more insightful.

Here is the update on the weekly deaths:
Deaths had been dropping at a rate of 5k per week.  It is now dropping at about 2.5k per week.

Next is the graph comparing total excessive deaths from death certificate tracking to CDC and NY Times coronavirus death tallies.


Death certificate tracking continues to diverge from CDC & NY Time data, with 5000 additional deaths indicated.  This could be an under-count in virus cases or a rise on other deaths that is currently not being discussed.  BTW – I am comparing death certificates this year to the 5 year max of prior years.  This is a very conservative way to estimate deaths.  If I compare with the 5 year average, there is an extra 20k deaths in the mix (25k total).  Sooner or later the CDC needs to provide a more detailed breakdown of causes of death.

Lastly, here is a new chart:


This is weekly deaths, CDC vs NY Times vs Death Certificate Tracking.  What is striking is how differently each data source behaves.  The NY Times data has the slowest run-up and slowest run-down of deaths, indicating that the epidemic is running strong.  Death Certificate Tracking, on the other hand, has the fastest run-up, highest peak, and fastest run-down, indicating that the epidemic is all but over.

Last note:  Fun Fact – the worldometer website now has a 7-day averaging filter option for their daily infection and daily death graphs.  Just remember: you saw it here first :p

Update:  Added Infections vs Deaths (NY Times Data) and Mortality:


Infections continue to trend sideways while deaths continue to trend down.


Mortality would be cut by more than half if I calculated it off of the death certificate data…

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