11 February marks the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution (you know, the Revolution that resulted in our embassy being taken over and our fellow citizens being held hostage till Reagan replaced Carter as President.)
The Iranians also announced today they have going to enrich uranium to a 20% level, (strictly for medical use, mind you /s off)
It is a ruse to get our attention focused on their Nuclear Bomb making program and divert us away from what is really going to happen on 11 February: The massive marches of protests that are being called for by opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi on that day.
The Mullahs in charge (led by the ailing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) and their President (and alleged ringleader of the US Embassy hostage taking in 1979) Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are girding up for a full scale crackdown on the opposition and protestors. Expect the Radical Revolutionary Guard and hired Arab guns from Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as some homegrown thugs imported from the countryside, to violently take on the protestors and kick some serious butt. It will be bloody, but the Iranian regime has learned how to shut down communications and restrict the western press from covering the riots in the streets.
Thousands of anti-government protestors are already rotting in prison and public executions have been made as an example of what lengths the current regime will go to in order to stay in power. So on 11 February, expect to hear some hearsay stories of the Mullahs putting down protests, but in our 24 hour news cycle, without it happening live and on camera… it will be a second tier story in the press, because, with CBSNBCABCMSNBC and yes, FOX, no video means no story.
What will be the story on 11 February is: “Whew, it was all rhetoric…they didn’t detonate or announce they have the bomb, so we can go back to ignoring Iran a while longer” by the Obama administration (BTW, have you noticed that Obama has taken to not wearing neckties, just like Ahmadinejad? Just wondering if anyone else has noticed, that’s all…) and in relief, little or no protest will happen over the Mullahs quashing the unarmed anti-government protestors with truncheons and guns.
End result: Lots of bloodshed in the streets of Tehran and other urban areas, many arrests and not quite a few deaths and the regime keeps a lid (for the most part) on any outside press coverage.
Don’t expect the Obama Administration to do much of anything other than give lip service condemning the violence. I mean, even the French are being tougher than Obama on Iran! With Obama in charge, the two key ingredients have been lost in our ability to conduct effective foreign policy: Respect and Fear.
Wanting to be liked doesn’t count for beans…
And for the record, I am still standing by my prediction in June of last year when all these protests started and what we should do to make regime change happen: