Iran is in the middle of an economic and political meltdown. Their economy under the Mullahs and Ahmadinejad has resulted in a society tittering on the edge of collapse. The regime has resorted to outright execution of political dissidents and violence is on the upswing. Both the Mullahs and Ahmadinejad know that they are in trouble and looks increasingly like they are going to use one of the oldest tricks in the book to weather the storm. Create an international incident to divert the people’s energies and revive nationalistic fever amongst large segments of the population. The Urban elites and students of Tehran won’t fall for it, but the vast masses outside the capitol probably (?) will. The 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution is from Feb.1-11 and expect Ahmadinejad to use it as an excuse to crack down on dissidents in order not to disrupt “celebrations”.
The Obama administration is finally taking the situation in Iran seriously. Obama probably had a “Come to Jesus” meeting with his Intelligence and Military leads….He was probably told if Iran successfully pulls off a major international stunt (sets off a Nuke, shoots a missile at Israel, closes the Straits of Hormuz or unleashes its forces in Lebanon and Gaza or any combination of the above) the price of Oil will skyrocket and the U.S., already on shaky economic ground, will plunge into recession or even worse. News outlets are reporting everywhere tonight that the U.S. is increasing its Patriot missile presence in the Gulf. The source of the information are (intentional) leaks from the U.S. Government and are no doubt meant to be a warning to Iran as well as handholding on our part for Arab Allies (?).
Bottom Line: Something seems to be in the air with regards to Iran and things may be getting tense during February. Tomorrow will be the tell of the tape…If Oil prices begin to spike up, then it means something is spooking the markets and that spooking is coming from an increasingly unstable Iran.