Diary

URGENT: In One Day Polling, McCain Leads Obama 48%-47%

I know it’s only a one-point lead, and the experts are predicting a pretty blue electoral map next Tuesday, but should we be getting excited?
I’ve let you guys and gals know that I had a period where I was getting down a month ago or so about the polls, and I apologized. And another thanks to all of you here at RedState (my new favorite website) for picking me up and helping to keep this in perspective. I’ve talked to a lot of people, sent a lot of e-mails, and can say I’ve changed some minds. While it is discouraging that there really hasn’t been a ground game for McCain/Palin in Omaha, I highly doubt Obama will steal an electoral vote from the second district here in Nebraska (we split votes just like in Maine).
I saw on Drudge a headline that says Zogby will release a one-day poll that shows McCain pulling ahead of Obama, with a 48%-47% advantage. While I don’t consider myself someone who will get excited over one poll, showing an advantage within the margin of error, has this race really tightened up to the point that the Obama people are that nervous?
Before I went to Drudge, I checked my e-mail which had a “state of the campaign” update on it. It talks about Iowa, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Ohio with great confidence. They were talking about how they still appear to be a little down, but are within striking distance. I don’t know if this is a farce, or if this is real. But the fact that Obama is back in Iowa, a state that has been called for Obama for the past month or so, kind of tells me something.
It also says something to see that on Rassmusen, more voters trusted McCain on the economy now. That didn’t relate to the national numbers as Obama was still showing a four-point lead and they are still predicting Obama to win, but if more voters are trusting McCain on the economy, I would think that it would take two or three days to catch up to the statewide polls.
Once again, I’m being a little cautious in saying that McCain will win, but I think this may show the infomercial was all for naught. Sure, a lot of the base saw it and loved it to death, but how did it sway undecideds? Frank Luntz’s “focus group” indicated that no one learned anything new from this, they just got the same rhetoric in a Hollywood setting. Could this have turned people off? Could he have lost some slight support in this?
I’m not ready to call the election yet, but I do have one prediction. It’s going to be a very long night, and this may make the mess in 2000 look like a game of jacks. I don’t expect getting a lot of sleep Tuesday night.