Doug Hoffman Surges to Lead in NY-23

A new poll of 300 likely voters conducted by Basswood Research for the Club for Growth shows that Doug Hoffman is currently leading in the NY-23 Special Election. The results? Hoffman 31.3%, Owens at 27.0%, and Scozzafava at 19.7%.

This helps to emphasize my theory that it is not Hoffman who is the spoiler, but Scozzafava. According to the poll, Hoffman is leading amongst Independents and Republicans. All Scozzafava’s continued inclusion in the race serves to do is siphon votes away from the Conservative candidate who, if elected, will caucus with the GOP. As Basswood pollster Jon Lerner said, “Hoffman now has a wide lead among both Republicans and Independents, while Owens has a wide lead among Democrats. Dede Scozzafava’s support continues to collapse, making this essentially a two-candidate race between Hoffman and Owens in the final week.”

I see no benefit in the GOP continuing to spend any money on Scozzafava. They should cut their losses now and allow Hoffman the freedom to continue his bid for Congress unfettered and unattacked by the party he wishes to caucus with. If you want to help the cause – donate to Doug Hoffman to help him in this final stretch.

Cross posted at Old Line Elephant

UPDATE: The Club for Growth posted the cross-tabs for their poll here. Party breakdown is 48.3% GOP, 36.0% Democrat, 13.3% Independent. Without leaners it’s Hoffman 28.3%, Owens 23.7%, and Scozzafava 18.0%.