Brent Budowsky and the poll-watcher's delusion.

I don’t normally fisk, but let’s unpack this passage, shall we? This article – called, amusingly enough, “Matt Drudge and the Republican delusion” – was dated March 25th, 2010 (today is March 30th, 2010):

Recently a Gallup poll, of course highlighted on Drudge, found that Obama’s numbers had (then) turned more unfavorable than favorable.

Presumably this one: 46/48 favorable/unfavorable.

This has (now) dramatically changed, unreported by Drudge, with Obama’s favorables now well above his unfavorables.

Presumably this one: 51% favorable. March 25th, 2010.
But not this one: 47/50 favorable/unfavorable March 29th, 2010. That’s USA/Gallup: the current regular Gallup three-day has him at 48/46 favorable/unfavorable; check back again at 1 PM EST, but I don’t expect aa massive jump.

The generic Democratic vote is leading the generic Republican vote in the last Gallup congressional election survey.

He means this survey: 47/44 Dem/Rep. March 16th, 2010.
Not the latest one: 44/47 Dem/Rep. March 30, 2010 (no story yet).

The healthcare bill has passed and the president’s polls have moved up. Democratic numbers have crept up.

And, as you can see, they have crept right back down again. Let’s add two more from Gallup, since we’re here: when they polled on reactions to the bill on the 23rd, the poll numbers were 49/40 in favor… and when they polled it again on the 29th, the numbers were 47/50.

The rest of the article wasn’t all that interesting – the usual “Four legs good! Two legs bad! Four legs good! Two legs bad!,” plus Matt Drudge standing in for Emmanuel Goldstein* – but the part that I highlighted was worth looking at, and snickering. Goodness knows that I use polls all the time, in a lazy fashion that must drive folks like that fine feathered friend at Unlikely Voter crazy… but even I know to wait a week or so on national issues to see if there’s a trend. Apparently, Brent Budowsky doesn’t. Or else he really needed to see what’s starting to look like strictly temporary good news on the Democrats’ front- which is my two-day reading on the situation. I merely suspect that I will be less affronted if you don’t pay attention to me for it…

Moe Lane

PS: The polls will shift back and forth between now and Election Day. Heck, the Gallup will probably go up today. Still. Usually posts like Budowsky’s aren’t supposed to wilt and grow mold within five days…

*Yes, I’m aware that those were two separate books. That being said, the Muppet Show version of 1984 would have been amazing.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.