Current Charlie Cook guess: R +4 to +6 in Senate.

I’m surprised that I missed this, actually.  Then again, there were things going on last week.

Our Senate/Governor Editor, Jennifer Duffy, currently estimates that the range of outcomes in the Senate could run from a wash, with neither party gaining a net seat on the other, up to a three seat gain for Republicans. In the gubernatorial races, she sees the same likely outcome, a wash to a GOP gain of three seats.


My own view, separate from the Cook Political Report’s estimates, mirrors [House Editor David] Wasserman’s current 20-30 seat net gain for Republicans in the House, but in the Senate, I take a bit more aggressive posture. I suspect a Republican gain of between four and six seats, predicated on Democrats being unlikely to beat any Republican open-seat Senate candidate or being able to unseat any Republican Senate incumbent. Democrats will have to be more concerned with defending their own seats.

I’m personally a sunny optimist, so six (AR, CO, CT, DE, NV, PA) is more my lower limit right now. And I think that at least one supposedly ‘safe’ seat for the Democrats is going to get absolutely hammered this year – and no, I’m not saying which one. People keep laughing at me in private when I suggest it.  None the less… heck of a way to start the new year, huh?

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.