When the trailing candidate’s campaign starts talking about GOTV as the primary strategy for victory, it’s over.
…the question that remains unanswered is whether they can prevail in a campaign in which Virginia’s many independent voters have turned against the national Democratic brand and with a nominee who many in the party privately believe has run a mediocre race.
The answer will be revealed on Election Night when the returns come in from northern Virginia, and particularly Fairfax County, the commonwealth’s largest jurisdiction. The Deeds campaign believes it needs to carry the region with at least 55 percent to win the election and at least approach the 60 percent threshold that recent Democratic candidates have captured in populous Fairfax.
As for turnout, the hope is to push the percentage of northern Virginia’s vote from 33 percent of the statewide electorate to above 35 percent.
I am a little surprised that this post can be written now, though: I had it scheduled for some time around the 29th. Obviously, turnout is very important; but it’s usually not until about a week or so before the actual election that losing campaigns start using it as a tool to backstop eroding enthusiasm. Seeing this happen this early suggests that Virginia Democrats are worrying about the downticket races.
PS: Bob McDonnell for Governor. Because it’s not over until it’s over.
PPS: The big question for Chris Christie in NJ isn’t turnout for him; it’s whether Daggett’s going to break double-digits on Election Day (at this moment, this question makes the difference between a 1-point win for Christie, and probably a 3-point one). Which I’ll believe when I see it.
Crossposted to Moe Lane.