We have to stop conceding seats. The Other Side doesn’t.
Anyway, this is of course Rep. Rahm Emanuel’s seat, and as he’s going to be the next CoS it’ll be opened up for a special election. The Cook Political Report lists it as D+18 – makes sense; it’s part of Chicago, and Bush got somewhere around 33% of the vote there in ’04 – but the district has had an interesting amount of churn, with four Representatives in the last ten years. The Democratic jockeying for this one has already begun: expect embattled (and hopefully, soon-indicted) governor Blagojevich (whose old seat this is, by the way) to pick a date for the special election that best suits his personal needs.
Bottom line: a Republican pickup is out on the very edge of the probability curve… right now. On the other hand, right now the head and public face of the Democratic Party in Illinois isn’t under indictment. That changes, this becomes merely a long shot. Long shots are doable.