It is looking more and more that an Islamist Jihadi terrorist bomb blew up that Russian passenger jet a few days ago killing all on board as it was flying from the Sinai Peninsula to St. Petersburg, Russia. This one terrorist event will now prove cataclysmic for the world. Because…
President Putin of Russia MUST respond aggressively and decisively to this act of terror, otherwise he will look weak and indecisive and that would be contrary to his entire career of looking tough and acting tough, from Chechnya to Ukraine. He must now massively retaliate, as former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton predicted on Fox News yesterday. If Putin were to hesitate he risks being ousted by a right wing coup of hardline Generals in the Kremlin who would then massively retaliate against ISIS and garner xenophobic Russian popular support. So Putin MUST and WILL act. This is the only way Russia can maintain credibility as a superpower for possible future conflicts. What does this mean?
Before I get to what it means let me say something about maskirovka, or strategic deception, which is a long-standing Soviet-Russian stratagem. During the Battle of Stalingrad the Soviet use of maskirovka successfully deceived the German forces as to the Russian offensive. And during the Ukraine crisis recently Putin sent in a convoy of white-painted trucks ostensibly as a humanitarian relief mission which he KNEW Western Intelligence would interpret as a Trojan Horse invasion…but which in reality was a raid into the industrial Donbas region in order to loot valuable military-industrial equipment from Ukraine and abscond with it back to Russia. So this was a DOUBLE deception. Similarly in the Russian media now the terrorist bomb is being played out as perhaps Ukrainian, whatever…this is strategic misdirection, maskirovka, being used in order to mask Russia’s real plans, soothe ISIS that Russia is just as ineffective as the U.S. and that ISIS has nothing to worry about, until…BOOM, one night soon, in the dead of night, the following will happen…
It means carpet bombing the ISIS headquarters of Raqqa in northern Syria, along with other urban concentrations of ISIS fighters and supporters in the area, and probably extending to the major city of Mosul in northern Iraq under ISIS control. Just like the U.S. carpet bombed or area bombed parts of Vietnam with B-52s or, going farther back, area bombed German cities like Berlin and Hamburg and Japanese cities like Tokyo during World War II.This means massive civilian casualties because the Russians cannot give the civilian populations any warning and retain strategic surprise. If there were a warning the ISIS leadership and personnel would disperse itself and the Russian mission would be a failure. Ergo, the world must brace itself for collateral damage in the tens of thousands and a drastically increased refugee flow that really will swamp Europe.
The massively increased refugee flow accomplishes another strategic goal of Russia’s, which is to weaken NATO Europe as the huddled miserable masses fleeing the cauldron of the Middle East place a gigantic burden on the European economies. Putin’s long-range strategic goal has always been to cripple NATO Europe and this indirect, but brutal, way of accomplishing this outcome is a brilliant low-cost method… a judo-like maneuver…and Putin is a black-belt in judo.
Another benefit to the Russians of bringing in the nuclear warfare intended Bears and Backfires, which will be flying through Iran and Iraq to get to their targets, since Bulgaria and Greece have closed their air space to Russia at U.S. request earlier (another reason Russia doesn’t give a damn what the U.S. thinks about all this) is that the heavy bombers can also be used to obliterate the remains of the so-called good rebels, the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which the U.S. has been re-supplying with air drops of munitions. America can kiss all of that goodbye, the Russians aren’t messing around in Syria anymore like Obama has been for the past two years.
The U.S. so-called war plan against ISIS has been to hopefully train up and supply the Kurdish forces who, combined with the FSA, were expected to gently storm Raqqa, ha ha, gently because Obama wanted to minimize civilian casualties. What a joke, as Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said a while back. The Russians said the Americans weren’t serious about winning the war against ISIS, and they’re right this time. Only one problem. The Russian way of winning it is like operating on a patient, the patient dies, but the surgeon says the operation was a success. After the Russians are finished half of Syria will be a desolated wasteland.
This is why President Obama never pursued the war against ISIS seriously because to do so would have meant creating the same insurmountable problems that Putin is about to unleash on the world. The heavy lift Bear and Backfire strategic bombers of the Russian Air Force will now be adding to the rage and fury of the Sunni Muslim world in the Middle East, as Shia Iran with Russia’s help of the Shia Assad regime continue to pound the Sunnis and the resultant chaos and anarchy will engulf the region…hopefully, from the Russian perspective, destabilizing Saudi Arabia and skyrocketing the price of oil, to Russia and Iran’s advantage, and throwing the world into economic depression. Which rebalances the ‘correlation of forces’ back to Russia and Iran’s favor. Which is another reason Putin is gonna do it.
And as far as the inevitable blowback against Russia by its own Sunni Muslim population…well, the Russian Security Services, the police and Interior Ministry troops…they’re not bound by any American style civil rights concerns…they will just blow the brains out of any protesting or dangerous Muslims, just like they break the heads of gay rights protesters these days in Russia all the time.
And when the Russian Air Force starts flying its doomsday missions in Syria the U.S. will prudently stay away. But the Turkish Air Force will send up fighters to patrol its borders which lie very close to the Russian operations. Russian bombers will be escorted by Russian fighters of course, to protect them from engagements with the Turks. Turkey is a NATO member and if dogfights happen between the two sides, or any kind of accidents, both the U.S. and Russia will have to go on high alert. World War III can start this way…
Think your stock market portfolio or IRAs or today’s good jobs market report can survive even the initial stages of this potential global meltdown? Which makes Obama’s announcement of his decision today, just now, to reject the Keystone oil pipeline to the Canadian tar sands completely absurd…because in a few weeks or months at most the U.S. will be falling all over itself to get the pipeline built in a crash project…because the Middle East will be in flames, for a very long time to come.