Today, PPP released its first Florida senate poll (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_FL_823714.pdf) with a likely voter screen. I have been waiting for this screen for a while now. As anticipated, the screen benefitted Rubio. Perhaps not so anticipated, however, was the size of the swing. PPP’s RV poll had Crist up by 6 points on 7/18 (35-29). Today’s poll has Rubio ahead 40-32, indicating a swing of 14 points.
Rubio has led every single poll all season that has applied a likely voter screen. Crist has led every poll without a screen. Is there such a large dichotomy between results of LV polls and RV polls anywhere else in the country?