We have good stuff happening in Arizona in the races for the House of Representatives. Very good stuff.
Arizona currently has eight House seats and they are currently split 5D/3R. That’s about to change in 58 days. We have two districts that are pretty effectively Gerrymandered into liberal seats – one held by Ed Pastor and one by Raul Grijalva. Pastor represents CD04 and has been in Congress for 20 years. Raul represents a district in Tucson that is significantly to the left of the district that sends Nancy Pelosi to Congress and he’s routinely noted as the most liberal member of Congress. He was the primary sponsor of ObamaCare and he’s made a name for himself here in Arizona by repeatedly calling for boycotts over SB1070. Those two Critters will be Members of Congress until (and after) the Lord comes back.
There are however, three other seats that should flip this election.
- CD05 – Harry Mitchell.
- CD01 – Ann Kirkpatrick.
- CD08 – Gabrielle Giffords.
American Action Forum polled competitive districts in the West August 23-29 and here’s a snapshot of their results for the three districts in question:
I find the snapshots from this polling to be really encouraging across the board.
For all three races there are some very consistent results.
- Right/Wrong Track consistently favors the Challengers.
- The issue of the Economy favors the Challengers and it’s not likely that the job market is going to improve any time soon in Arizona. As a side issue related to Jobs, Arizona Democrats are calling for boycotts of the State because of SB1070. Boycotts of a State where tourism is a major industry are not helpful.
- Then there’s Illegal Immigration. While it was cited by a relatively small number of voters as “major” issue it was typically the #2 issue raised. Here in Arizona, “Illegal Immigration” is a code phrase to two things: SB1070, which is favored by about 70% of Arizona voters and the lawsuits that have been brought by the Obama Administration. It’s interesting to note that the State is projecting that it will cost about $1MM to defend the DoJ suits. We’ve already raised about $3MM mostly from out-of-state donors. Without asking. Thank you.
- With respect to the question of what is most likely to influence their vote, voters in all three districts highlight the same four things and all of them favor the Challengers.
- Did I mention ObamaCare? Well, the voters did. All three Democratic incumbents FOR ObamaCare. All three Republican Challengers want to repeal it. Voters in all three districts STRONGLY OPPOSE ObamaCare in greater numbers than voters who support it in any manner. By a lot. Did I mention that all three Democrats voted for, and are quite pleased with, their support of ObamaCare?
Now then, with respect to the individual races.
First of all, and the closest, Giffords v Kelly. Jesse Kelly is a former US Marine in his first political outing. He beat John Paton to win the nomination even though Paton is a former State Senator, is a conservative with a good legislative record and had a huge edge (just like Giffords does now) in both name recognition and money. Paton endorsed Kelly immediately after the election. The really amazing thing about Kelly is that he’s effectively tied with Giffords even though 41% of the voters in his district either don’t know anything about him or have never heard of him. Jesse can win this race but he needs some financial help. Hopefully both Governor Brewer and Senator McCain will find the time to campaign for Jesse and will help him financially, Lord knows McCain can afford it and they’ve both got the time given that both will win their races by big double digits. Jesse is on the right side of every issue that is of concern to CD08 voters and Giffords is simply wrong. She does have lots of money though. Did I mention that Jesse could use a few bucks? If you’re like me and you live in a district where there really isn’t a race (I’m in CD03, John Shadegg’s old district and Ben Quayle should win going away), send Jesse some money.
In both the remaining districts, the Republican Challengers have a decent lead, again given that their name recognition isn’t all that great. David Schweikert has a six point lead and half the district don’t know him.
And then there’s Dr. Paul Gosar. If I was Ann Kirkpatrick I’d be on suicide watch. 70% of the voters don’t know about him and he’s got a six point lead with 47% of the vote. There’s really not much to say after that except “Go Gosar!”
Every one of these districts should be represented by not just a “Republican”, but a solidly conservative Republican in the next Congress.