Diary

We've got 12 precincts left to count, so it's over...

The primary is over here in Arizona with all but 10 precincts in Maricopa County and 2 in Pima County (Tucson) reporting.

  • US Senate: McCain 56%; Hayworth 32%; Deakin 12%.
  • Governor: Brewer 82%; nobody else matters.
  • CD01: Will be ;Dr. Paul Gosar v. Ann Kirkpatrick (D).
  • CD03: Will be Quayle v. Jon Hurlburd (D).
  • CD05: David Schweikert v. Mitchell (D).
  • CD08: Jesse Kelly v. Gillbrand (D).
  • CD04 and CD07 will stay Dem.
  • CD02 and CD06 will stay Rep.

1. US Senate.
McCain by ahhh 24%. The rationalization of those who have been insisting JD Hayworth was “The Man” will be that McCain had to spend $20MM to beat him. If you think that, you live in a world of rainbows and unicorns. McCain didn’t spend $20MM because he had to, he spent $20MM because he could.

  • JD was never a credible candidate. He’s a well known commodity all over AZ and got tossed in 06 by Harry Mitchell because the voters were – and are – disgusted by him.
  • JD polled 43%, down 2%, to McCain last November when nobody had had time to remember just how bad JD really is. He pretty much crashed from there.
  • Polling in late July showed McCain up 20%+ with overall favorables while JD had overall unfavorables.
  • The Ds nominated the Unknown Marxist from Tucson.
  • McCain won’t have to spend a dollar to win in November.

Bottom line, this race was a fool’s errand for JD from day one. IMO he ran to pay off $100K in debt from 06. The only thing he accomplished, aside from making a complete fool of himself for a national audience (we already knew it here) was to divert $20MM plus that could have gone to winning House seats. My fondest desire is that JD is embarrassed enough to move to Kansas. Or somewhere. Anywhere but Arizona.

Governor.
This is a monster disappointment if you are a conservative or if you care about the future of Arizona. Jan Brewer won in a slow walk and will will pound Terry Goddard to dust in November (a good thing).

Brewer is Charlie Crist in drag. Just before SB1070 was all the rage she was beatable by any one of four competitors. She didn’t support SB1070 through the legislative process and nobody really knew whether she’d sign it until she actually did. She read her handlers lines well from that point on the subject of SB1070 and rode the wave. The problem is that she is a fiscal moderate at a time when we need Chris Christie. AZ has HUGE budget problems and her budget last year is a house of cards. Hopefully the legislature will hold her feet to the fire when the TARP money and the temporary tax increases are gone. Brewer is a totally incompetent administrator in her new position. She’s not a leader and has no agenda beyond being employed by the state.

Hopefully either John Shadegg or maybe Matt Salmon will run against her in four years. Assuming we’re still a state. Our next Governor will likely have a huge mess to clean up.

Congressional Races.
There are two safe D seats and three safe R seats. One of the R seats will have a new “sitter” in Ben Quayle (John Shadegg’s old seat). Raul G and Ed Pastor (Ds both) will be in Congress until hell freezes over or they get redistricted out (not gonna happen, but a higher probability than them losing). Trent Franks and Jeff Flake are both secure Rs.

The good news is that we should have a good shot at taking back three seats in November. The bad news is that all three Dems are very well heeled – literally have millions in the bank – and the Republicans are all broke. These three races will come down to money and organization and money. Did I mention money?

The situation we’re in today in these three districts is exactly what really ticked me off about JD Hayworth and his “Man of LaMancha” act. He pissed away a couple of million jousting at Windmill McCain and McCain spent $20MM beating him to a pulp. Half of that would pretty well insure three Republican House seats. Oh well.

I hope Redstate will promote our three candidates. They are all conservative and they are all lightyears better than the current members who support Pelosi etal. Please pay them a visit and consider a donation if you’ve got a buck or two laying around to invest in winnable races.

My fondest hope is that the two top fundraisers – McCain and Ben Quayle – will pony up big bucks and help the three who can win. Neither McCain or Quayle will have to spend any money to win so I hope they “share”.