I hate it when this happens. I was wrong. Woefully wrong.
I said JD Hayworth would peak in the polls on the day he announced he would run against McCain. So much for what I know. From Rassmussen today…
Following news that Sarah Palin will campaign for him in Arizona, Senator John McCain has opened a significant lead in the Republican Primary campaign.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely 2010 Republican Primary voters in Arizona finds the longtime incumbent leading former Congressman J.D. Hayworth by a 53% to 31% margin. In November, the two candidates were virtually even.
Former Minuteman leader Chris Simcox gets four percent (4%) support, while three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate and eight percent (8%) are undecided.
Some of this has to do with Sarah Palin campaigning for McCain. Most of it has to do with the fact that Arizona is a purple state and JD Hayworth is a loud mouthed jerk (who, honestly, I prefer to McCain) and people have had a while to remember just how awful JD is.
Still, 74% of likely GOP Primary voters have at least a somewhat favorable opinion of McCain, a figure that has not changed since November. Hayworth’s favorable ratings are down nine points to 58%.
Sorry folks, it is what it is. And the Dems have nobody interested in opposing McCain whose name recognition is as high as my dead white cat. If JD runs, he likely won’t get 31% of the vote and Simcox certainly won’t get 8%. Think in terms of well under 30% and maybe 3%.