Diary

McCain may get primaried...

Actually he will. There are a couple of guys who’ve already announced. Chris Simcox and Jim Deakin. Simcox is marginally well known as a founder of The Minuteman Civil Defense Corps and has some baggage that he will bring to the primary. He also has the ability to raise some funds outside of Arizona. Deakin is basically unknown to all but his immediate family and hasn’t got two cents and can’t raise much more than about a nickle.

Today, John Fund reports that JD Hayworth is thinking about running. I got the clip from NRO and try as I might I couldn’t find it at the WSJ.com.

He may have been his party’s presidential nominee last year, but John McCain could still have to endure a primary challenge from the right when he runs for a fifth term in the U.S. Senate next year. Conservative radio talk show host J.D. Hayworth, who was a Republican member of Congress for a dozen years until losing his seat in 2006, is mulling running against Mr. McCain.

Mr. McCain has always had a tenuous relationship with the grassroots of his party in Arizona. Many GOP voters remain genuinely angry with him for cosponsoring a comprehensive immigration bill with the late Senator Ted Kennedy in 2005. A new Rasmussen Reports poll finds that 61% of Arizona Republicans think Mr. McCain has lost touch with the base of his party. In a general election, however, Mr. McCain remains a shoo-in since his approval rating among moderates is a striking 64% and he also wins approval of a surprising 41% of liberals.

Please note the last sentence in Fund’s quote. The bottom line is that John McCain is absolutely unbeatable in the general election unless Janet Napolitano comes back and runs against him, and then it’s a contest.

With respect to JD Hayworth, he’s simply worn out his welcome as a politician in Arizona. The guy is perceived by most people, quite rightly IMO, as a loudmouthed jerk. That is what cost him his seat in the House, not his immigration stance. JD might be able to raise a few bucks outside of the state, but he won’t raise much in state.

Without regard to who runs, or if they all run, in the primary, McCain will win in a walk. The 61% number doesn’t mean much given two things. One, I doubt that anybody thinks any of the three is a reasonable candidate. Two, McCain (absent Napolitano’s return) can spend $10MM in a primary which only has two media markets. He could probably spend more if he thought he had to because he can certainly raise all the money he needs to win the primary. He won’t have spend $50.00 to beat any Democrat but Napolitano.

I know it sucks. But that’s just how it is.