Diary

A month of presidential polling transition in one table

Like many other pollsters, Rasmussen rates states as safe XX, likely XX, leans XX or toss up. Today they made their first update in a month. Now I know the slight shifts in race have been well documented here. But, this gives a nice chance to step back and look at the progress of the race as a whole. So without further adieu-

State- Former Status- New Status

TN- Likely GOP- Safe GOP

LA- Likely GOP- Safe GOP

SD- Leans GOP- Likely GOP

NC- Leans GOP- Likely GOP

OH- Toss Up- Leans GOP

CO- Leans Dem- Toss Up

OR- Likely Dem- Leans Dem

WI- Likely Dem- Leans Dem

ME- Safe Dem- Likely Dem

CT- Safe Dem- Likely Dem

If you are keeping score at home- then you’ll notice that every state that shifted this month shifted in our favor. That’s 10 for 10. Of course- OH and CO have been getting all the attention lately. But now, two new states have entered the swing state radar- Wisconsin and Oregon. 538‘s model says the projected likelihood of us taking either of those states is a little better than the Dem’s pulling off Missouri and slightly less likely than them stealing Florida.

Also remember that this next month is going to be dominated by bounces that should be disregarded in the long run. False convention jumps and VP enthusiasm will dominate polling. This my be our last clear look at polls for a while.