Lets have some fun with numbers-First, lets assume Obama gets his way and we get a fully unsanctioned Democratic Convention. That means the route to a clear nomination requires 2,210 delegates out of 4,418.
When one adds up the pledged, and unpledged but unofficially pledged delegates, BHO appears to have 2,307 delegates or 52% of the vote.
The split looks like this-Pledged votes: Hillary 1720.5 Obama 1842.5 Edwards 3.0First, that 0.5 comes from some split in the “Democrats Abroad” delegate count.More importantly, if super delegates didn’t exist, Obama holds the lead with 51.7% of the vote.
So how much of what’s left does Hillary need?Take away all the sanctions and there are 852 Super Delegates, and 3 unpledged Edwards delegates for 855. To get to 2210.5 Hillary needs 490 of those unpledged delegates, or 57.3% of them.
Now let’s go a step further. Say you call shenanigans on Obama being given any of Michigan’s pledged delegates when his name wasn’t on the ballot. I know I would. This was an early primary in which many votes could have easily gone to other candidates who removed their name from the ballot. Or better yet- many of the uncommitted votes could easily have been a protest vote to the parties sanctions on the state and the candidates themselves removing their names from the ballot. Well, that’s another 59 delegate penalty to BHO leaving him with just 1783.5 to Hillary’s 1720.5 of pledges (and not just promised) delegate votes or 50.9% of the vote and a spread of just 63 votes. OH NOES!
If that’s the case, our unpledged pool would be upped to 914. Meaning Hillary needs just 490/914 or 53.6% of the uncommitted vote.