A new batch of polls have come out regarding the congressional races in Virginia from ccAdvertising that show Republicans leading in three of the four major races: VA-2, VA-5, and VA-11; as well as coming close in VA-9.
I want to focus on the 11th because that’s my home area, Northern Virginia. Conventional wisdom is that this district has gone Democrat, and that seemed to be the case from 2001-2008, just like the rest of Virginia. But the district was draw for former Rep. Tom Davis and George W. Bush won the 11th in both 2000 and 2004. The district is compose of central, western, and southern Fairfax County as well as the western parts of Prince William County. But after 2006 (Davis’s last reelection), the district went decidedly blue in state offices as well in local elections to the State Senate and House of Delegates. In 2008, Fairfax County Board Chairman and local Democratic mainstay Gerry Connolly won big over political novice, businessman Keith Fimian.
Just one year later, however, Fairfax swung back to the Republicans. Bob McDonnell won the 11th in his gubernatorial race, and won Fairfax County overall. We picked up several delegate districts that we lost in 2005 and 2007, as well.
Fimain had to get past count supervisor Pat Herrity, son of a local icon, in the congressional primary and did so largely on the backs of new, energized, angry, grassroots voters and the local tea party. But the question remained, could he come back from a ten point loss just two years earlier to win? It seems the answer is "yes . . . almost." Keith is inching every-so-close and I call all here in RedState Nation to once again rise up and help a true conservative to win this seat that a year ago nobody thought was within reach. Here is the poll results:
- Fimain: 42
- Connolly: 37
- Undecided: 21
The poll tells me two things . . . 1) Connolly is in serious trouble, and 2) Fimian still has some work to do to get the victory here. Connolly has held office in Fairfax County since 1995 and is a well-known quantity. He isn’t the most popular guy, even among Democrats because he’s basically a bully. But he’s a tireless campaigner who’s not afraid to get dirty, can raise tons of money, and most of all he wins. Its not good that a month before an election, someone with Connolly’s deep local roots has so many people undecided. But it also means Fimian hasn’t totally convinced them that he’s the man.
But for the first time in his career, Connolly hasn’t had control of his electoral fate. The Fairfax County Board is only a ten-member body with one at-large elected chairman. He could push and pull as he wanted and impose his will. He can’t in Congress. Connolly has struggled to come to terms with the Obama-Pelosi agenda famously complaining about "spilling blood" for Obama and then saying he opposed the Bush tax cuts on principle but would vote for their extension. The district was thought to be Democratic because of all the federal workers in the district and the relatively low unemployment in the district. But he just seems to have lost something, like he’s not in control any more. His shots on Fimian aren’t landing, and he’s flailing to the center claiming he’s an independent voice after spending the better part of 25 years as a Democratic insider both as a congressional staffer, a local government official, and a congressman.
He beat Fimian two years ago on social issues. He lambasted Fimian for belonging to Opus Dei and claiming his pro-life stance was out of touch with Northern Virginia. Fimian’s campaign was oftentimes off message and a mess. Not this year. A tough but resounding primary win got him into shape and helped him shape a general election message. He’s a combination of Bob McDonnell and Ken Cuccinelli. Fimian in his past life was the CEO of US Inspect, the home inspection company. He talks nonstop about creating jobs by lowering taxes, getting government spending under control, and on his website he says "I will introduce legislation in Congress to repeal it." And this isn’t just a short-term conversion, throughout 2009 Fimian was still running and holding small town halls about Health Care, even leading a rally against it in front of Connolly’s local office. At events I’ve attended Fimian often describes that he will be a bull in a china shop in Congress. I think candidates like this are the one’s we need to support.
Keith does have personal wealth but Connolly has raced money at a feverish pace and Keith will need the entire county’s help to close this out in the next 30 days. The social issues that Connolly exploited two years are go are passe now. If there is one thing that keeps Northern Virginia from turning 100% blue, its taxes. VA-11 is one of the wealthiest districts in the country, and Congress’s complete inability to pass a budget and failure to secure the Bush tax cuts are very hot issues here. Day after day, FImian has been hammering Connolly on taxes and the budget, and its working.
Please consider helping to defeat a Pelosi toady and sending a true conservative to Congress. Please think about giving Keith Fimian some money.