Diary

Dear Reps. Nye, Perriello, and Connolly

Read these numbers and sleep well tonight.

2nd District

  • McDonnell: 61.8%
  • Bolling:  56.4%
  • Cuccinelli:   57.5%

5th District

  • McDonnell:  61.4%
  • Bolling:  60.6%
  • Cuccinelli:  61.6%

11th District

  • McDonnell:  55.1%
  • Bolling:  51.7%
  • Cuccinelli:  52.1%

-The 2nd and 5th are really winnable.  In the 2nd a wide-open primary is headed Scott Rigell, Chuck Smith, and Ben Loyola.  Also, moderate State Sen. Ken Stolle returned home tonight winning election as Virignia Beach sheriff, and he made a previous attempt when Thelma Drake won this seat.  Virginia Beach Mayor Will Sessoms is also talked about.  Lastly, two new delegates were elected in VA Beach in Ron Villanueva and Chris Stolle (brother of Ken), as well as incumbent Del. Sal Iaquinto.  This is a wide-open race, and as long Republicans don’t go nuclear on each other we should get a strong candidate hardened by a tough primary ready to steamroll Rep. Nye.  Remember, Bob McDonnell’s old House of Delegate district and political base is in the 2nd District, he’ll make sure this is handled correctly.

-The 5th district is the most winnable of all of them.  State Sen. Robert Hurt, who’s district is entirely in the 5th, has announced and is the front-runner.  But he’s vunerable to conservative primary challenger.  As a member of the House of Delegates, Hurt voted for the 2004 Mark Warner tax increases.  But there doesn’t seem to a serious challenger outside of Albermarle Co. Supervisor Ken Boyd, and a couple of lesser-known candidates in Lawrence Verga and Michael McPadden.  BTW, this is Creigh Deeds is district.

-The 11th the lines are drawn, Gerry Connolly vs. Keith Fimian II.  K-Fim did a great job starting from absolute scratch in 2008, the local party in dissary by losses of two state senate seats in 07 (only Cuccinelli survived), the abandonment of local kingpin Tom Davis, the cement shoes names George W. Bush, and the explosion of support for Barack Obama.  Its a different race this time around, Bob McDonnell won Fairfax County, the states most populous.  The most liberal precincts in Fairfax are in the 8th district, while the 11th includes portions of the more conservative Prince William.  What makes this election interesting now is that Bob McDonnell has shown Keith Fimian how to win.  Connolly will have two years of bad votes to explain and no Obama on the ticket.

-One last thing to remember about the Virginia 3 elections next year.  These three candidates will be alone on the ballot.  No presidential headwinds, no popular Senate candidates, nothing.  Nye, Perriello, and Connolly will be on their own 12 months after Bob McDonnell steamrolled through 2 of the 3 distircts and outright won all three.  Lets hope the NRCC can get their act together for Virginia and make sure we use this McDonnell victory as a road map and an energizing momentum builder for these races.