Diary

Curious Case of the Democratic Primary in the Night

The Party, of course the Democratic Party since it is currently the only relevent party in the United States, is annoyed.  They have been taking hits to the body since last spring and summer’s healthcare deform debacle.  They lost their filibuster-proof majority in the Senate due to a pin-up boy in Massachusetts.  Their “Anointed One” has been taking his lumps daily.  An entire segment of the population has taken to the streets to protest their policies.  Far-left detractors have not behaved themselves in spite of promises of ‘hoax and derange’.  Overall, they are in a pickle coming up on this fall’s election.  Now, they have been burdened with a porn-addicted, accused felon as a candidate to unseat Jim DeMint in South Carolina.  What is going on?

The Party was absolutely convinced that their Dear Leader would lead them into a generation of political power akin to FDR’s coalition.  Time magazine predicted following his election, “[t]hat is both Obama’s great challenge and his great opportunity. If he can do what F.D.R. did — make American capitalism stabler and less savage — he will establish a Democratic majority that dominates U.S. politics for a generation.”   Time’s Peter Beinart, November 13th, 2008 Such hubris is usual for a post-election analysis, but this sentiment ran much deeper in the punditry’s consciousness.

“The party [Republican] — now clearly a minority one — is left wondering whether the Democratic rout is the result of a coincidental marriage of a powerful personality and a terrible political and economic environment or if it signals a deeper change in voter patterns and beliefs that will make it difficult for them to recapture the White House for years.” Washington ComPost’s Robert Barnes and Michael Sheer on November 5th, 2008.  The obituary for the Republican Party was therefore signed, sealed, and delivered.

And that, my friends, was the pinnacle of the ‘New Liberal Order.’

Since then the economy has tanked worse than it was.  The political structure in Washington has proven more corrupt and morally bankrupt than it was before.  The Obamanation has soured.  The Party is poised for midyear elections that frighten them. 

South Carolina’s Democratic primary to take on the irksome Jim DeMint is such a case in point.  Rather than fully engage, as they were promising to do, the Party managed to name a relative unknown to run against him.  Furthermore, the man is in legal trouble due to a sexually related felony and no organization or bona fides.  The juggernaut seems to have ran out of steam.

Instead, the hapless South Carolina party elite begged Alvin Greene to step down.  Their top elected official, Representative James Clyburn, demands a criminal probe into Greene’s election.  Following the foibles of Governor Mark Sanford and his Argentine mistress, it would seem the Party would have at least some wind at its back.  But, to no avail.  Instead they are scratching their collective heads and wondering about the problems.

Elsewhere, the Party is equally in serious trouble.  Incompetence, arrogance, and overall distaste is coating the mouths of voters who may dislike Republicans but loathe the Party right now.  Harry Reid is still in the dumper even with a supposed radical as an opponent.  House Democrats are bracing for surprise losses when the Party faces an angry electorate bent on throwing out some bums.  Their sure-fire winner in Connecticut can’t tell the truth, about himself.  Their candidate for the Illinois Senate seat of Barack Hussein Obama looks to find himself embroiled in ethics scandals. 

The polls are all over the place.  There is little reliability in the data, it is quite surprising.  Republicans have been winning the generic ballot until recently.  Obama sinks and rises like a stubborn buoy.  One week Boxer dips and then floats above a few points.  It is appearing more and more like a blowout is in the works.  Here’s why.

Nothing is more disastrous for political pundit predictions than unpredictable outcomes.  The political smarty-pantses are predicting along demographic and historical outlines that have made sense in the past.  That’s all they have to go by.  Certain districts of people usually behave in certain patterns.  This is what drives the prediction models.  As a result, they are trying to get their arms around numbers that seem to be tilting toward Democrats and away from Republicans. 

But we are in brave, new territory.  Their predictions do not, and will not hold.  The current political fights are not about ‘groups’ but among individuals, which is highly unpredictable.  As a result, they are flailing around the numbers, which are not stable, trying to figure out the movement.

This coming from people who dismissed the Tea Party movement, scoffed at Scott Brown’s chances, and wrote off Joe Sestak and confirmed the renomination of Bob Bennett.  Not the best track record.

Volatility is the enemy of the prognosticator.  Trends work only with measurable mass movements.  They are missing some seriously salient points.

The American people are giving the Democratic Party their second chance, now, instead of in September.  There is always a kick-back against the opposition in late summer and early fall.  By mid-September, early October, the die has been cast.  The Democratic Party is getting their push-back early this year, too early.  Because of it, the polity will confirm a massive realignment starting this summer.

In 2006 and 2008, momentum began really building in those later periods for the Democratic Party.  This is the Party’s chance for reformation.  It comes early because of the doubts about Obama.  The people are willing to give him one last chance to change his style and policy before abandoning his wave. 

This summer will prove more and more difficult for the presiding party.  The economic recovery will stall under rising debt.  The unemployment rate will surge when the census workers are released from their duties.  China’s economy will slow, along with Europe’s.  Healthcare deform legislation will begin making its way around the water cooler and the reaction will not be pretty.

Along with that, the Party is running out of bribe money.  Congress is getting nervous about raising the debt limits even more and Obama will not have more money to pay off his friends.  The voting population will get more skittish and more unpredictable. 

Faith in the Party will ebb.  The left is tired of watching nothing happen.  The right is engaged and furious.  The center is perturbed and feeling vengeful. 

Demographics and party loyalty have never been more irrelevent.  It will be a long, cold, dark night.  Strange things, like felonious, unemployed candidates, will be the least of the Democratic worries.