Watch Michigan Tonight: McCain Won't Win Michigan, But It's Still a Bell-Weather

John McCain will not win Michigan. So don’t hold your breath. But, if the race is six points or less — then we will be up late tonight. If it’s five points or less — start thinking upset. If it’s four points or less — John McCain will be our next president.

Anecdotally and I will update throughout the day and early evening:

9:15 a.m. — TURNOUT in West Michigan is HIGH and that is good. Having been a candidate four times – three times at the county level and one state house race, I am very familiar with the precincts, polling areas, voting trends in November in this area, traditional turnouts, etc. Voting turnout today from Battle Creek to the west side of Kalamazoo is big today. Lines outside polling areas, where lines have never been before. I went by 5 separate polling places, over a span of 30 miles, this morning and it was the same everywhere.

This impression has been confirmed by two co-workers: One who left because the lines were so long and another who was 15 minutes early to a polling station and no. 68 in line.

2:00 p.m. — UPDATE — Turnout remains high in Michigan, although the initial rush from this morning has subsided. A recent visitor at 2:00 p.m. reported that she was voter 750 in a single township precinct at 2:00 p.m. This is substantially higher than seen at recent votes at this same precinct. During the primary, I think I was voter No. 250 at 6:00 p.m. on my way home from work. The visitor – a very hot, dark haired Italian American woman who happens to be my wife – reports some young voters were in there — which she suspected to be Obamaniacs. All kidding aside, voting turnout remains very high.

Comments from other Michiganders is encouraged.