I predict that by late summer the Trump Administration will come out and claim they achieved or came very very close to the Congressionally mandated 23% federal small business contracting goal. They will probably claim to have achieved or come very close to the 5% contracting goal for women-owned small businesses, the 5% goal for minority-owned small businesses and the 3% goal for service disabled veteran-owned small businesses.
If they do, this will be a complete and total lie, and in reality, the Trump Administration will have cheated America’s 28 million small businesses out of hundreds of billions in federal contracts and subcontracts. Here is what they will do.
To fabricate compliance with the various small business contracting goals the Trump Administration will violate federal law and exclude the vast majority of federal contracts from their calculations. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the total federal acquisition budget is around $1.2 trillion. They will cheat small businesses and small businesses owned by women, minorities and service disabled veterans out of billions by claiming the acquisition budget is less than $400 billion. The total federal budget is in excess of $4 trillion, so the Trump Administration will try and convince us the government spends less than 10% of that amount.
The second way the Trump Administration will cheat America’s 28 million small businesses is by claiming billions in federal contracts to many of the largest corporate giants in the world are actually small businesses. My guess is federal contracts to well over 100 Fortune 500 firms and their subsidiaries along with contracts to thousands of clearly large businesses will be included in the volume of federal contracts they will claim were awarded to small businesses.
During the campaign Trump said, “I will be the greatest jobs President God ever created.”
Government data reports over 90% of all U.S. firms have less than 20 employees and they create over 97% of all net new jobs. U.S. Census Bureau data reports small businesses are responsible for over 50% of the private sector work force, over 50% of the Gross Domestic Product and over 90% of all U.S exporters.
Clearly you cannot create jobs without programs for small businesses. The Small Business Act that mandates a minimum of 23% of all federal contracts go to small businesses is the largest and most efficient economic stimulus and job creation program in history. No current or previous federal program has ever directed more federal spending to small businesses than the Small Business Act.
I predict President Trump will be the worst jobs President God ever created. I say he will cheat America’s top job creators out of billions. It wouldn’t surprise me if he even tries to kill all federal small business programs and close the Small Business Administration by merging it with the Department of Commerce.
We will find out if I’m right by the end of this summer.