The Coming Wave

The online left has been busy selling the narrative over the last several month that the Democrats’ electoral problems are due to problems with their base.  The theory being touted by the leading luminaries of the leftist fever swamps is that if only Democrats were more liberal, they’d be doing better in the polls.  The only problem with this theory, of course, is that it represents the exact opposite of the truth.

See Exhibit A, a poll conducted by Mason Dixon released Sunday showing Incumbent Democrat Congresswoman Dina Titus tied with relative unknown Joe Heck in the race for the Congressional seat in NV-3.  You may never have heard of Dina Titus before; that’s because her district is one of the more reliably Democrat districts in the entire country – Democrats have an 18 point registration advantage in this district.  In keeping with what you would expect from a representative of such a heavily Democrat district, Rep. Titus voted “Yes” on all three of the major prongs of the Democrat legislative agenda for this year: Yes on the Obama Stimulus, Yes on cap-and-trade, and Yes on Obamacare.  Furthermore, Dina Titus does not have any major corruption or personal issues driving up her unfavorables like Jon Corzine did or like Chris Dodd does. It also can’t be that voters are punishing Titus for the failure of the Democratic legislative agenda in general; the House passed all three measures and Titus was a contributing factor to all three.

The only reasonable explanation of the evidence here is that even in this heavily Democrat district, the policies currently being pushed by Obama and the Democrats are simply not popular.  The Mason-Dixon poll indicates that Obamacare is currently opposed by residents of the district by a margin of 47-41.  Although crosstabs aren’t available for this poll yet, Mason Dixon claims the respondents are appropriately weighted for the district’s party registration, which leads to the conclusion that Titus (like Corzine and Deeds) is getting clobbered among independents by a huge margin.  The problem is not that the American people don’t know what the Democrats stand for; the problem is that they have seen clearly what the Democrats stand for and they don’t like it.

The online left is pushing the “you’re unpopular because you’re insufficiently liberal” meme for a very transparent reason: they are attempting to force through as much of their legislative agenda as possible during this two-year window, and are willing to sacrifice large numbers of elected Democrats to accomplish it. If I were a Democrat interested in keeping my job, this poll would make me very nervous about following their advice or about cloaking myself in Obama’s policies.  Marching in lockstep with Obama might have looked very smart for Democrats 6 months ago, now it looks to be a road to electoral defeat.