Diary

The Most Electable - A Fool's Errand

Donald Trump likes to say in his tweets that he beats Hillary, or that he’s the only one who can beat Hillary. Governor Kasich’s only argument to win, is that at a contested convention he should be picked because he beats Hillary the most in all the polls. First of all, Trump is now losing to Hillary Clinton in the polls by a lot. Second, if Kasich was beating Hillary in all the polls, than why can’t he win anything but his home state of Ohio?

The truth is that polls of this kind really don’t mean anything. Sure, polls have some value and can give you a sense of where a group stands on an issue but they are limited and often wrong. As we’ve seen with Trump’s constant under performance and Cruz’s over performance this cycle, and the wild polling inaccuracies of past presidential elections, polls can be significantly wrong. The reason is because polling can easily get thrown off by low sampling size, getting the wrong mix of actual voters or the fact that they simply don’t account for real life. Polls are a sample of peoples thoughts at a given time based on limited circumstances and specific questions which are sometimes designed to get certain results.

Combine too much trust in polling with the belief that a party’s “base” will simply turn out and vote, for the correct letter designation of a candidate “R’ or “D’ and you have “unpredictable” elections.

I never held my nose and voted for John McCain or Mitt Romney, even though I can look back and see that, in my opinion they both would have been much less destructive than the current administration. At the time though, I knew that years of people voting for candidates who didn’t hold their convictions, and being supplanted by the establishment was leading us down a dangerous path. Now here we are, at a much more dangerous place.

People simply don’t vote whatever party they belong too. If you look at the percentage of people who are even registered to vote, you know that many people just don’t bother because they just don’t want the bother, or they think it doesn’t matter, or they don’t like any politicians. And then many registered voters don’t even vote for the same reasons. It doesn’t matter how much you argue that not voting for X is a vote for Y. A large percentage of people won’t vote for someone they don’t feel motivated to vote for.

Does Governor Kasich really have a chance to convince the delegates that he is the best choice? That it doesn’t matter what the majority of people have voted for (not him), that based on polling he will win? I think even the higher ups in the party realize that people want an “outsider,” which John Kasich is not, in any sense of the word. Trying to engineer him into being the nominee would not only cause a November loss but almost total destruction to the party and lead to the rise of a significant third party. Despite what the polls say, I think many people realize that Kasich would not win the general election.

Polls do have some meaning and value. The one thing polls have shown consistently and that bares out in reality in terms of anecdotal evidence is that many people don’t like Donald Trump and many people would never vote for him.

So who does that leave? By default the answer is Senator Ted Cruz. But in my opinion Ted Cruz has much more to offer than as a default not-Trump candidate. But because so many in power fear people with principles who stand up for them, Cruz is not liked in Washington. So maybe Trump has served as a blocker to actually allow Senator Cruz to win. It’s not that Cruz doesn’t have much to offer but just that the media and the establishment hasn’t allowed the truth to come out. Now that Trump is a lightning rod, he may just make it possible for Ted Cruz to unite people behind him. Even if a lot of that support is because #neverTrump, Cruz is uniting the party and based on his credentials, intellect and hard work, he will win the general election.

Besides if Bernie Sanders somehow beats Hillary, all the polls show him beating all the Republicans. Conservatives don’t want Sanders and Republicans don’t want Sanders and the Democrat establishment doesn’t want Sanders. Is it really likely he’ll win? How would the delegates feel if they picked the most electable Republican based on polls, and then that person was still losing to Bernie Sanders? Maybe even Paul Ryan would lose to Sanders in the polls. Even if he didn’t, choosing Ryan would likely give the Republican party the same fate as the Whig party. Who’s going to vote a straight Whig party ticket this November? Anyone?