State of House races in MI

Michigan currently has 15 seats in the US House of Representatives.  Of those 8 are held by Democrats and 7 by Republicans.  There are 3 seats in play this election, all of them held by Democrats.  If we can sweep them, it would change the makeup of the Michigan representatives to 10R/5D.  It would also be a nice contribution to regaining Republican control of the House.  The 3 seats are MI-1, MI-7, and MI-9.

Regular readers of Redstate should be very familiar with MI-1.  This is the seat held by the co-called blue dog Dem Stupak.  He sold his pro-life convictions to pass Obamacare.  He had one once of common sense and decided not to run again.  Although we have not heard from him lately, we at Redstate have been treated to several diaries by the Republican candidate, Dr. Benishek.  His Democrat opponent is McDowell.  The New York Times rates this seat as a tossup.  The bloggers of 538 indicate that there is a 89% chance of a Republican win.  Both candidate have about $131,000 on hand.  A September 2 poll commissioned by Benishek shows him leading by 22 over McDowell in a two-way race and has Benishek up by 39 to 25 over McDowell in a 4-way ballot.

The story of MI-7 makes for interesting readings although it has been a heartbreak for conservatives.  In 2004 in a multi-candidate GOP primary several conservatives split the majority conservative voters and allowed the uber-RINO Joe Schwarz to gain the nomination and the seat.  In 2006 conservatives coalesced around Tim Walberg in the primary, give Schwarz the boot.  Walberg squeaked by the Democrat in the general election.  In 2008 Schwarz got his revenge by endorsing the Democrat, Mark Schauer, for the general election who won with 48.9% of the vote.  Walberg is back for a rematch against Schauer.

NYT rates it as another tossup and 538 gives the GOP a 68% chance to win.  An Aug. poll sponsored by a conservative organization has Walberg up by 10% (50% Walberg, 40% Schauer).  Unfortunately Schauer has a money advantage with $1.65 million on hand while Walberg only has $240,000.

Finally, there is MI-9, a district in the northern suburbs of Detroit.  This seat was held by the Republican Joe Knollenberg for a number of years before he was ousted by the Democrat Gary Peters in 2008.  As a freshmen in a previously Republican held seat Peters should be vulnerable, especially this year.  The GOP nominee is Rocky Raczkowski.  NYT rates the district as leans Democrat but 538 gives Rocky a 72% chance to win.  A Sept. poll has the race at 45% Raczkowski and 41% Peters.  Again though, Peters has the money advantage of $1.93 million while Rocky has $220,000 cash on hand.

The polling and the ratings look good for the GOP, but the cash on hand is a definite concern for both Walberg and Raczkowsk.  It wouldn’t hurt if Benishek had a little more too.