Diary

What an Obama Administration Would Be Like

If Obama wins the election (and I estimate about a 60% chance that he will), he’ll take office with larger Democratic congressional majorities than Bill Clinton had during his first two years in office. After the 1992 election, the Democrats had a 260-175 margin in the House and 57-43 in the Senate. If current estimates are correct, the Democrats will have about a 270-165 margin in the House and possibly 58-61 votes in the Senate. To paraphrase Bob Dole on the night of Clinton’s election, “The Democrats will have the whole enchalada now.”

Politically, that will be a good thing for Republicans. Ever since that ill-conceived fly-over of New Orleans and the sloppy and slow response to Katrina, it’s been one PR disaster after another for the GOP. Think about the chronology:

  • Botched response to Hurricane Katrina

  • Harriet Miers nomination

  • Dubai Ports World fiasco

  • Jack Abhramof related scandals

  • Slow response to escalating violence in Iraq in 2006

  • Soaring Gas Prices

  • Mark Foley

  • US Attorney firings

  • Falling home values

  • Larry Craig

  • Financial Crisis

Rightly or wrongly, the Republican party has been defined in the eyes many Americans by those issues. To that end, the word Republican has become almost anathma to many. It seems that about 60% of the American people tuned President Bush out forever in late 2005. Even Republican successes during this period (most notably the surge) were essentially ignored.Well, if Obama wins, this will finally (for the first time in several years) put the focus on the Democrats… What will they see?

The first two things that the left will insist on will be (1) reinstatement of the Fairness Doctrine to shut down conservative talk radio and (2) the ban on secret ballot elections for labor unions… These issues remind me of the gays in the military issue from 1992. It was an issue that GHW Bush didn’t use in the campaign (to his detriment) and most Americans had no idea of Clinton’s intentions on the issue when he took office.

I believe that today, most Americans have no idea about the Fairness Doctrine and labor unions issues and that it’ll come as a shock when those issues rise to the surface. During the debate on those issues (both of which I expect the GOP to lose), the Republicans stock will begin to rise for the first time since 2004. Another issue that isn’t even being talked about yet but will come up, relates to the 2010 census. I’m sure that an Obama Administration will want to do statistical sampling as opposed to an actual enumeration. The purpose will be to increase the number of Congressional seats to blue states. In addition to those issues, there’ll be a lot of nominations from a President Obama and it’ll be interesting to see how many of them (especially Justice Department appointees) have links to left wing causes. I can imagine dozens of Obama appointees who are affiliated with Ayers or Wright type individuals and/or groups who are seeking to free Mumia Abu-Jamal or Lori Berenson…

A lot of people are willing to overlook their misgivings about Ayers and vote for Obama but when they see an Administration staffed with people who have similar ties to similar left wing radicals, then you’ll see support for Obama start to wane. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has approval ratings in the 40’s by May.

All this will be a boon to Congressional Republicans as well as Republican gubenatorial candidates in Virginia (2009) and Pensylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, Arizona, Colorado & Nevada (among others).

Although I’m still holding out hope for a McCain win, a loss might give the GOP a much needed breather and a chance to regroup and perhaps recover the House in 2010. Contrary to the stories that you may hear in the days and weeks after the election, this is still a center-right country. Every now and then, the Democrats have to remind a lot of people why that is so…