Diary

How the GOP can cut into the Democrats' urban vote totals

From The Chicago Tribune, via Le*gal In*sur*rec*tion:

Emanuel doubts Trump will cut funding for sanctuary cities

By John Byrne | November 16, 2016 | 5:09 PM CST

Mayor Rahm Emanuel on Wednesday said he doesn’t think Republican President-elect Donald Trump will cut off federal funding to sanctuary cities, the latest salvo in the mayor’s post-election defense of immigrants here without permission against possible deportation by the incoming White House.

“I don’t believe they’ll do it, because that would mean every major city in the United States would be targeted, and that’s not what an administration will do,” Emanuel said after a City Council meeting.

“When you’re in the White House, it is incoming,” said Emanuel, who worked in the Clinton and Obama administrations. “When they look at all the things they want to get done and all the battles that will be coming — whether the battles they initiate and the ones that come to them — they will make a choice that this is not the battle they want to take on because they have bigger fish to fry, mark my words.”

Trump has pledged to deport millions of immigrants living in the country illegally. The Justice Department released a memo in May saying Chicago could stand to lose nearly $29 million in annual justice grants if found to be in violation of federal laws on detaining people to be turned over for possible deportation. On Wednesday, the mayor declined to say what he would do if Trump takes away that money, calling it a hypothetical that wouldn’t happen.

There’s more at the original. What Mayor Emanuel was asked, about the potential loss of $29 million in law enforcement grants, something The Los Angeles Times reported was under consideration, he wasn’t addressing the fact that Chicago receives more than $1 billion, over 10% of its entire municipal budget, from the federal government.

And that’s where the real leverage is: Chicago, and other ‘sanctuary cities,’ would feel some pain, would have a headache, if just the ‘justice grants’ were suspended, but if all federal funding was suspended, the pain would be more than the worse migraine ever; it could turn out to be a fatal disease to many city budgets. Mother Jones, a far-left journal, listed some of the sanctuary cities, and how much they stand to lose if all federal funds are suspended. New York City receives around $7 billion from the federal government, about 9% of its total budget.

This is where the Republicans have an opportunity to reduce the stranglehold of the left on our cities. Donald Trump earned the votes of 13% of black men, which doesn’t sound like much, but it’s a significant increase from the percentages won by either John McCain in 2008 or Mitt Romney in 2012. This, to me, indicates the growing realization among the working people of the United States that the interests of the welfare class are diametrically opposed to their own; whenever someone is living on welfare, he is dependent upon the government taking tax dollars away from people who are working for a living to support him, and the taxpayers are realizing that. The black vote has been so monolithically Democrat that 13% is a big departure. And if the GOP can withdraw federal funds completely from ‘sanctuary cities,’ working-class blacks, as well as working-class whites, are going to feel the effects in their cities, as those cities will have to either significantly increase taxes or cut programs, or both, to cover the loss of revenue. When the city governments choose to favor the illegal immigrants to the point that it causes real pain to American citizens, those citizens are going to express their displeasure at the ballot box.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton ran up a significant margin in the popular vote, something on the order of 2½ million votes, but that margin was won in geographically small areas, in our largest cities. It was decreased turnout by the demographic groups on which the Democrats counted, primarily in our cities, which enabled Pennsylvania’s more suburban and rural areas to overcome the votes in foul, fetid, fuming, foggy, filthy Philadelphia, and carry the state against Mrs Clinton for Donald Trump.¹ If the GOP can earn a bigger split in the cities, by demonstrating to the black working-class how their interests are being harmed by sanctuary city policies, then Republican candidates will do much better in statewide races.
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Cross-posted on The First Street Journal.
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¹ – The pre-election polls had Democrat Katie McGinty unseating Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA), but Mr Toomey won re-election. The polls are all manipulated to survey ‘registered voters’ or ‘likely voters.‘ A depressed Democratic turnout caused by a depressing Democratic candidate is what (probably) led to the polls being wrong.