There’s a saying that former House Speaker Tip O’Neill once declared and since has become an election axiom, “all politics are local.” This statement by O’Neill holds true for nearly every election as voters are concerned about issues that affect them directly in their local cities, towns and states. Presidential years are not as local as mid terms but do have a local flavor which helps drive the election.
2010 though is an exception to this generally thought axiom which could spell the loss of the Senate for Republicans unless the GOP gets back on track in the final week before November 2. Even the large change of seats expected in the House could fall to the failure of the GOP and a concerted effort by Democrats to take this mid term from a nationalized referendum on Obama and his socialist agenda and making it about local candidates and issues.
Republicans began to drop the ball on this soon after members of the House issued the Pledge to America which outlined much of what the GOP planned to do if elected to the majority this year. The momentum was clearly with Republicans and the spotlight was on Obama and his failed agenda which has angered most Americans who have understood the real threat it poses for our Nation and future generations.
But in the last few weeks that nationalized message has floundered as Obama and Democrats have pushed a massive get out the vote campaign which has emphasized candidates rather than issues and brought much of the election to a more local level than national and Republicans have been reacting to Democrats instead of hammering the failures of Obama and the Pelosi/Reid Congress. As such races especially those in the Senate have tightened and the GOP margin of victory is not looking nearly as strong as it did even two eeks ago.
As October began many were predicting as many as 100 seats in the House and a minimum 50/50 split in the Senate. Now slightly over a week before the mid term, House predictions are dropping to 40 and 50 with many expecting the Senate to remain in Democrat control as races thought clearly going to GOP candidates have moved to the toss up column.
Admittedly some of this change is media driven as the left has such a tight hold over much of the press who have been excoriating many GOP candidates especially those who have strong backing by the Tea Party who the left have tried to paint as racist, bigoted and anti American since the movement gained national prominence last year. Yet even with the leftist media blitz against the Tea Party and conservative candidates, the failure of the GOP to hold the momentum and keep this elections national referendum has dwindled the lead by many candidates whose looked to gain easy victory as little as two weeks ago.
The Democrats strategy of localizing the election has taken the heat and the spotlight off of Obama and his failures which has helped quell the affect anger voters have had against his agenda for more than a year. That anger over Obamacare, the failed stimulus, massive national unemployment, deficits and debt isn’t as prominent in the news and in local campaigns.Republicans have found themselves defending their stand on local issues and false concerns about the candidate themselves, taking the aim off of Obama, his agenda and its damaging affect on our Nation.
One fact that is usually associated with mid term elections which does favor the GOP and the sagging poll numbers in tightening races is that historically polling is not as precise a predictor in off Presidential years. Many who answer polling questions as likely or registered voters will participate in a poll but not take the time or effort to actually get out and vote on election day. As such polling prior to a mid term election does tend favor the party in power especially when that party also holds the Presidency who traditional loses seats during a mid term.
But polling failures in precisely predicting mid terms does not explain away the quickly sagging numbers in many races especially those in the Senate. For the GOP to take the Senate and have the massive victory in the House that was predicted then candidates and the national party must take the message from Democrats and nationalize the election more as a referendum against Obama and his agenda.
By doing this the anger which has driven voters so long will be stoked and when they go to the polls this anger will equate in defeat to the party that backed Obama’s destruction, Democrats. In the final days before the 2010 mid term Republican candidates and advertising must emphasize the Obama failures. They must hammer home the sagging economy and the Obama policy that has prevented recovery. Obama and Democrats who have punished business must be held accountable for the National 10% unemployment and many localities whose unemployment figures are much higher.
There is still time to reverse the trend. Polling may continue to show lesser wins for the GOP as time is running short to increase sagging numbers. But voters who are angry about the state of the economy, unemployment, debt, deficits and the general direction Obama is taking the country and succeeding in getting them to the voting booth to oust the culprits of our problems namely those who have backed Obama’s agenda is still possible and likely if the message is hammered home in these final days.
We cannot afford to let this opportunity slip in pressing the issues on a national level and keeping the ball of defending their irresponsible actions in the Democrat court. They cannot defend what they have done and Republicans must force Democrats back on the defense by stressing Obama’s failures, the Congressional record of destruction which has cost millions of jobs and interjected government control into our economy from health care to car companies.
Republicans will win a victory on November 2, but if GOP control of the Senate is going to take place then the final days of this campaign MUST return to nationalizing the issues and slamming Democrats for their failures and Obama for ignoring the people and the Constitution. This election is not local, its national and the margin of Republican victory depends on reminding voters that the source of our national problem lies directly in the hands of Obama, Pelsoi, Reid and Democrats who have followed this trio down the destructive path we are currently on.
Ken Taylor The Liberal Lie, The Conservative Truth