Diary

Results: September 2011 Primary Preference Polling of RedStaters

Summary:  Yes, we Cain!

Thanks to all RedStaters who participated in the late September 2011 Primary Preference Poll – Pick 5.

Yes, this poll was conducted just prior to the announcements by Chris Christie and Sarah Palin that they would not be running.  But rather than harming these results, this polling methodology captures data deep enough to show to whom the respondents are interested in moving based on that news. 

LEGALESE:  This poll is not affiliated in any way with RedState management.  The following results are simply descriptive statistics about the set of RedStaters who followed the directions when participating in the poll (no hanging chads considered here).  This is not a scientific poll.  This is not generalizable beyond the description of the valid participants…  But it is fun and a bit intriguing, if I say so myself.  Thanks for participating and letting me have a little fun!  Please look to participate in the next survey:  Date TBD.

METHODOLOGY:  RedStaters were invited to participate in a one-minute survey (through SurveyMonkey) to indicate their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th picks for the Republican presidential nomination from among the following candidate options (alphabetical order):  Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Chris Christie, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Buddy Roemer, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum.  For the 5th choice only, the respondent was permitted to (though encouraged not to) say that he/she would not vote in the primary given the remaining options.

[Please bear with the slight alignment problem in the tables below.  Evidently there is a bit of a problem pasting from Word…]

I am very happy to announce that participation grew tremendously compared to the activity in the May and June polls (May had 105 responses yielding a sample size of 102 while late June polling had a set of 147 responses yielding a sample size of 146).  I hope we continue to grow participation as the primary season heats up!

For a review of May’s results, see here.

For a review of June’s results, see here.

For this late September (September 25 through October 1, 2011) primary preference poll, I received 1,528 survey responses.  However, the data needed to be cleaned for erroneous submissions [multiple voting (QUIT ACTING LIKE A DEMOCRAT!) as well as naming the same candidate more than once].  For what it’s worth, this cleansing of voting errors had a greater impact on Sarah Palin’s first preference numbers than on any of the other candidates.  For the 1,424 who accurately participated in their preference submissions, the first choice of participating RedStaters was:

Top Choice results:

Candidate

Votes

Percentage

Sarah Palin

713

50.1%

Herman Cain

326

22.9%

Ron Paul

148

10.4%

Rick Perry

105

7.4%

Mitt Romney

35

2.5%

Newt Gingrich

30

2.1%

Michele Bachmann

16

1.1%

Jon Huntsman

14

1.0%

Chris Christie

14

1.0%

Rick Santorum

10

0.7%

Gary Johnson

9

0.6%

Rudy Giuliani

2

0.1%

Buddy Roemer

2

0.1%

 

But what happens when Rudy and Christie don’t run?

Given the relatively low numbers for both of these candidates, I will list out their second preferences quickly and move on…

Rudy’s 2 supporters’ second choices are Jon Huntsman and Newt Gingrich, respectively.

Christie’s 14 supporters move to Herman Cain (6), Rick Perry (4), Mitt Romney (3) and Rick Santorum (1).

None of these shifts have significant impact on the RedStaters’ results above, but…

What happens because Sarah isn’t running?

Using the 2nd choice of those whose first choice was Sarah Palin, the candidates who gain from her absence are:

Candidate

Gain

Herman Cain

+398

Newt Gingrich

+73

Rick Santorum

+68

Rudy Giuliani*

+41

Michele Bachmann

+35

Rick Perry

+26

Ron Paul

+19

Mitt Romney

+16

Gary Johnson

+14

Buddy Roemer

+13

Chris Christie**

+6

Jon Huntsman

+4

* Of the 41 first-Sarah-then-Rudy voters, their 3rd preferences are Herman Cain (12), Rick Santorum (11), Newt Gingrich (8), Jon Huntsman (2), Rick Perry (2), Mitt Romney (2), Michele Bachmann (1), Gary Johnson (1), Buddy Roemer (1), Chris Christie (1, whose 4th choice is Newt).

**Of the 6 first-Sarah-then-Christie voters, their 3rd preferences are Herman Cain (3), Newt Gingrich (2) and Rick Perry (1).

Adjusting the results to reflect the race without Sarah Palin, Rudy Giuliani or Chris Christie gives us the following Top Choice results:

Candidate

Votes

Percentage

Herman Cain

745

52.3%

Ron Paul

167

11.7%

Rick Perry

138

9.7%

Newt Gingrich

115

8.1%

Rick Santorum

90

6.3%

Mitt Romney

56

3.9%

Michele Bachmann

52

3.7%

Gary Johnson

24

1.7%

Jon Huntsman

21

1.5%

Buddy Roemer

16

1.1%

 

 

Cutting the data some additional ways to consider the possibilities… 

 

Liked (or at least considered) by many:

Who, among the 1,424 respondents, did they name as being in their Top 2, or Top 3?

Main takeaway:  Sarah Palin’s Top Choice support among participating RedStaters was strong but additional support was not wide-spread.  Herman Cain currently has broad appeal across participating RedStaters.

Named in Top 2:

Candidate

Votes in Top 2

Percentage

Herman Cain

833

58.5%

Sarah Palin

781

54.8%

Rick Perry

214

15.0%

Newt Gingrich

211

14.8%

Ron Paul

182

12.8%

Gary Johnson

145

10.2%

Rick Santorum

120

8.4%

Michele Bachmann

92

6.5%

Mitt Romney

84

5.9%

Chris Christie

70

4.9%

Rudy Giuliani

65

4.6%

Jon Huntsman

30

2.1%

Buddy Roemer

21

1.5%

 

Named in Top 3:

Candidate

Votes in Top 3

Percentage

Herman Cain

1046

73.5%

Sarah Palin

843

59.2%

Newt Gingrich

498

35.0%

Rick Perry

334

23.5%

Rick Santorum

313

22.0%

Michele Bachmann

254

17.8%

Ron Paul

226

15.9%

Gary Johnson

189

13.3%

Mitt Romney

156

11.0%

Chris Christie

147

10.3%

Rudy Giuliani

147

10.3%

Jon Huntsman

66

4.6%

Buddy Roemer

53

3.7%

 

 

Removing Christie, Giuliani and Palin from the results…

Named in Top 2 from among existing candidate pool:

Candidate

Votes in Top 2

Percentage

Herman Cain

1,015

71.3%

Newt Gingrich

425

29.8%

Rick Perry

307

21.6%

Rick Santorum

295

20.7%

Ron Paul

217

15.2%

Michele Bachmann

210

14.7%

Gary Johnson

184

12.9%

Mitt Romney

111

7.8%

Jon Huntsman

43

3.0%

Buddy Roemer

40

2.8%

 

Named in Top 3 from among existing candidate pool:

Candidate

Votes in Top 3

Percentage

Herman Cain

1,153

81.0%

Newt Gingrich

732

51.4%

Rick Santorum

507

35.6%

Rick Perry

467

32.8%

Michele Bachmann

420

29.5%

Ron Paul

290

20.4%

Gary Johnson

245

17.2%

Mitt Romney

229

16.1%

Jon Huntsman

91

6.4%

Buddy Roemer

75

5.3%

 

 

2nd Preferences of supporters of candidate X:

We saw how Sarah Palin, Chris Christie and Rudy Giuliani supporters in this survey move when they are not in.

Who are the 2nd choices of some of the other candidates’ supporters?

Those who first chose Herman Cain (326 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Newt Gingrich

84

Rick Perry

67

Michele Bachmann

30

Rick Santorum

30

Sarah Palin

44

Chris Christie

24

Mitt Romney

13

Rudy Giuliani

11

Ron Paul

10

Jon Huntsman

5

Gary Johnson

5

Buddy Roemer

3

 

Once Christie, Giuliani and Palin are removed, the 326 Herman Cain voters’ 2nd choices are:

Newt Gingrich

111

Rick Perry

87

Michele Bachmann

42

Rick Santorum

40

Mitt Romney

16

Ron Paul

13

Jon Huntsman

7

Gary Johnson

6

Buddy Roemer

4

 

Added cut:  Now that Palin and Christie (and assuming Giuliani as well) are not in the running, of the 745 Herman Cain supporters, their resulting 2nd choices are:

Newt Gingrich

244

Rick Santorum

151

Rick Perry

135

Michele Bachmann

126

Ron Paul

30

Mitt Romney

25

Gary Johnson

14

Buddy Roemer

11

Jon Huntsman

8

No Answer Remained

1

 

 

Those who first chose Ron Paul (148 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Gary Johnson

110

Sarah Palin

8

Herman Cain

6

Newt Gingrich

5

Michele Bachmann

4

Chris Christie

4

Jon Huntsman

4

Buddy Roemer

3

Rick Santorum

2

Rudy Giuliani

1

Rick Perry

1

 

Once Christie, Giuliani and Palin are removed, the 148 Ron Paul voters’ 2nd choices are:

Gary Johnson

116

Herman Cain

9

Michele Bachmann

6

Newt Gingrich

6

Jon Huntsman

5

Buddy Roemer

3

Rick Santorum

2

Rick Perry

1

 

 

Those who first chose Rick Perry (105 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Herman Cain

63

Newt Gingrich

13

Sarah Palin

8

Mitt Romney

8

Rudy Giuliani

4

Rick Santorum

3

Michele Bachmann

2

Chris Christie

2

Gary Johnson

1

Ron Paul

1

 

Once Christie, Giuliani and Palin are removed, the 105 Rick Perry voters’ 2nd choices are:

Herman Cain

67

Newt Gingrich

17

Mitt Romney

9

Michele Bachmann

4

Rick Santorum

4

Jon Huntsman

1

Gary Johnson

1

Ron Paul

1

Buddy Roemer

1

 

Those who first chose Mitt Romney (35 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Herman Cain

10

Chris Christie

9

Rick Perry

4

Rick Santorum

4

Newt Gingrich

2

Rudy Giuliani

2

Jon Huntsman

2

Michele Bachmann

1

Sarah Palin

1

 

Once Christie, Giuliani and Palin are removed, the 35 Mitt Romney voters’ 2nd choices are:

Herman Cain

15

Rick Perry

6

Rick Santorum

6

Newt Gingrich

3

Jon Huntsman

3

Michele Bachmann

1

Ron Paul

1

 

 

 

 

Those who first chose Newt Gingrich (30 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Herman Cain

14

Rick Perry

5

Chris Christie

4

Sarah Palin

2

Mitt Romney

2

Michele Bachmann

1

Rudy Giuliani

1

Gary Johnson

1

 

Once Christie, Giuliani and Palin are removed, the 30 Newt Gingrich voters’ 2nd choices are:

Herman Cain

18

Rick Perry

5

Mitt Romney

3

Gary Johnson

2

Michele Bachmann

1

Jon Huntsman

1

 

 

 

Those who first chose Michele Bachmann (16 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Herman Cain

5

Sarah Palin

4

Chris Christie

2

Newt Gingrich

2

Rick Santorum

1

Mitt Romney

1

Gary Johnson

1

 

Once Christie, Giuliani and Palin are removed, the 16 Michele Bachmann voters’ 2nd choices are:

Herman Cain

8

Newt Gingrich

3

Jon Huntsman

1

Gary Johnson

1

Rick Perry

1

Mitt Romney

1

Rick Santorum

1

 

 

 

 

Those who first chose Jon Huntsman (14 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Mitt Romney

5

Gary Johnson

3

Chris Christie

2

Rudy Giuliani

2

Herman Cain

1

Ron Paul

1

 

Once Christie, Giuliani and Palin are removed, the 14 Jon Huntsman voters’ 2nd choices are:

Gary Johnson

5

Mitt Romney

5

Ron Paul

2

Herman Cain

1

Rick Perry

1

 

 

 

Those who first chose Rick Santorum (10 voters) also liked (2nd choice – once C, G &/or P removed, as needed):

Michele Bachmann

3

Rick Perry

2

Buddy Roemer

2

Herman Cain

1

Newt Gingrich

1

Mitt Romney

1

 

 

Those who first chose Gary Johnson (9 voters) also liked (2nd choice – once C, G &/or P removed, as needed):

Herman Cain

4

Ron Paul

3

Newt Gingrich

1

Rick Santorum

1

 

 

Those who first chose Buddy Roemer (2 voters) also liked (2nd choice – once C, G &/or P removed, as needed):

Ron Paul

1

Gary Johnson

1

 

 

Iterative Elimination:

What happens to the results when the lowest vote getters are systematically removed such that their 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th choices must come into play?

Based on the Top Choice results (after removal of Christie, Palin and Giuliani), Roemer is the first candidate eliminated due to being the lowest vote-getter.

Top Choice Results (Round 2):

Candidate

Votes

Percentage

Herman Cain

746

52.4%

Ron Paul

168

11.8%

Rick Perry

138

9.7%

Newt Gingrich

117

8.2%

Rick Santorum

92

6.5%

Mitt Romney

57

4.0%

Michele Bachmann

53

3.7%

Gary Johnson

32

2.2%

Jon Huntsman

21

1.5%

 

 

Based on the results of Round 2, the lowest vote-getter – Huntsman – is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 3):

Candidate

Votes

Percentage

Herman Cain

749

52.6%

Ron Paul

172

12.1%

Rick Perry

139

9.8%

Newt Gingrich

117

8.2%

Rick Santorum

93

6.5%

Mitt Romney

62

4.4%

Michele Bachmann

53

3.7%

Gary Johnson

39

2.7%

 

 

 

Based on the results of Round 3, the lowest vote-getter – Johnson – is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 4):

Candidate

Votes

Percentage

Herman Cain

760

53.4%

Ron Paul

184

12.9%

Rick Perry

139

9.8%

Newt Gingrich

123

8.6%

Rick Santorum

97

6.8%

Mitt Romney

65

4.6%

Michele Bachmann

54

3.8%

None of Top 5 picked

2

0.1%

 

 

Based on the results of Round 4, the lowest vote-getter – Bachmann – is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 5):

Candidate

Votes

Percentage

Herman Cain

793

55.7%

Ron Paul

185

13.0%

Rick Perry

142

10.0%

Newt Gingrich

131

9.2%

Rick Santorum

104

7.3%

Mitt Romney

67

4.7%

None of Top 5 picked

2

0.1%

 

 

Based on the results of Round 5, the lowest vote-getter – Romney – is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 6):

Candidate

Votes

Percentage

Herman Cain

817

57.4%

Ron Paul

188

13.2%

Rick Perry

156

11.0%

Newt Gingrich

140

9.8%

Rick Santorum

114

8.0%

None of Top 5 picked

8

0.6%

Would not vote for 5th

1

0.1%

 

 

Based on the results of Round 6, the lowest vote-getter – Santorum – is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 7):

Candidate

Votes

Percentage

Herman Cain

878

61.7%

Ron Paul

194

13.6%

Newt Gingrich

170

11.9%

Rick Perry

164

11.5%

None of Top 5 picked

14

1.0%

Would not vote for 5th

4

0.3%

 

 

Based on the results of Round 7, the lowest vote-getter – Perry – is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 8):

Candidate

Votes

Percentage

Herman Cain

987

69.3%

Newt Gingrich

202

14.2%

Ron Paul

198

13.9%

None of Top 5 picked

31

2.2%

Would not vote for 5th

6

0.4%

 

 

Based on the results of Round 8, the lowest vote-getter – Paul – is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 9):  (FINAL RESULT!!)

Candidate

Votes

Percentage

Herman Cain

1,074

75.4%

Newt Gingrich

254

17.8%

None of Top 5 picked

74

5.2%

Would not vote for 5th

22

1.5%

 

 

Thanks and Invitation

If you were one of the 1,424, thanks for your participation!  If you weren’t, I hope you will participate in the next Primary Preference Poll.  Keep an eye out for it!