Diary

Results: June 2011 Primary Preference Polling of RedStaters

The rise of Bachmann, the emergence of Perry, the presence of Palin, and the slippage of Cain & Pawlenty.

Thanks to all RedStaters who participated in the late June 2011 Primary Preference Poll – Pick 5.

LEGALESE:  The following results are descriptive statistics about the set of RedStaters who followed directions when participating in the poll (no hanging chads considered here).  This is not a scientific poll. This is not generalizable beyond the description of the participants…  But it is fun and a bit intriguing, if I say so myself.  Thanks for participating! Please look to participate in the next survey:  likely sometime in August.

METHODOLOGY:  RedStaters were invited to participate in a one-minute survey (through SurveyMonkey) to indicate their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th picks for the Republican presidential nomination from among the following candidate options (alphabetical order):  Michele Bachmann, John Bolton, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum.  NOTE:  I did not foresee Thaddeus McCotter announcing his candidacy.  Thus, the potential for his support at this time was not registered.  Nothing against Rep. McCotter, but at this stage in the process, I do not see this omission as significantly impacting these results…

I am happy to announce that participation grew from the inaugural poll in May (105 responses yielding a sample size of 102) to the June (June 26–July 2) polling set of 147 responses (yielding a sample size of 146).  I hope we continue to grow RedStater participation as the primary season heats up!

For a review of May’s results, see here.

For the 146 who accurately participated in their preference submissions, the first choice of participating RedStaters was:

Top Choice results:

Candidate Votes Percentage
Sarah Palin 36 24.7%
Rick Perry 31 21.2%
Michele Bachmann 25 17.1%
Tim Pawlenty 15 10.3%
Mitt Romney 12 8.2%
Herman Cain 6 4.1%
Ron Paul 6 4.1%
John Bolton 4 2.7%
Rick Santorum 4 2.7%
Jon Huntsman 3 2.1%
Gary Johnson 3 2.1%
Newt Gingrich 1 0.7%

 

 

But what happens if Sarah Palin doesn’t run?

Using the 2nd choice of those whose first choice was Sarah Palin, the candidates who gain from her absence are:

Candidate Gain
Michele Bachmann +15
Rick Perry +11
Herman Cain +4
Tim Pawlenty +3
Jon Huntsman +2
John Bolton +1
Newt Gingrich 0
Gary Johnson 0
Ron Paul 0
Mitt Romney 0
Rick Santorum 0

 

 

 

Adjusting the results to reflect the race without Sarah Palin gives us the following Top Choice results:

Candidate Votes Percentage
Rick Perry 42 28.8%
Michele Bachmann 40 27.4%
Tim Pawlenty 18 12.3%
Mitt Romney 12 8.2%
Herman Cain 10 6.8%
Ron Paul 6 4.1%
John Bolton 5 3.4%
Jon Huntsman 5 3.4%
Rick Santorum 4 2.7%
Gary Johnson 3 2.1%
Newt Gingrich 1 0.7%

 

But what happens if Rick Perry doesn’t run (but Sarah Palin does)?

Using the 2nd choice of those whose first choice was Rick Perry, the candidates who gain from his absence are:

Candidate Gain
Tim Pawlenty +12
Michele Bachmann +11
Herman Cain +4
Sarah Palin +2
Mitt Romney +2
John Bolton 0
Newt Gingrich 0
Jon Huntsman 0
Gary Johnson 0
Ron Paul 0
Rick Santorum 0

Adjusting the results to reflect the race without Rick Perry gives us the following Top Choice results:

Candidate Votes Percentage
Sarah Palin 38 26.0%
Michele Bachmann 36 24.7%
Tim Pawlenty 27 18.5%
Mitt Romney 14 9.6%
Herman Cain 10 6.8%
Ron Paul 6 4.1%
John Bolton 4 2.7%
Rick Santorum 4 2.7%
Jon Huntsman 3 2.1%
Gary Johnson 3 2.1%
Newt Gingrich 1 0.7%

But what happens if neither Sarah Palin nor Rick Perry run?

Using the 2nd (and sometimes 3rd) choice of those whose preferences were Sarah Palin and/or Rick Perry, the candidates who gain from their absences are:

Candidate Gain
Michele Bachmann +34
Tim Pawlenty +18
Herman Cain +10
Jon Huntsman +2
Mitt Romney +2
John Bolton +1
Newt Gingrich 0
Gary Johnson 0
Ron Paul 0
Rick Santorum 0

Adjusting the results to reflect the race without both Sarah Palin and Rick Perry gives us the following Top Choice results:

Candidate Votes Percentage
Michele Bachmann 59 40.4%
Tim Pawlenty 33 22.6%
Herman Cain 16 11.0%
Mitt Romney 14 9.6%
Ron Paul 6 4.1%
John Bolton 5 3.4%
Jon Huntsman 5 3.4%
Rick Santorum 4 2.7%
Gary Johnson 3 2.1%
Newt Gingrich 1 0.7%

 

Cutting the data some additional ways to consider the possibilities…

Liked (or at least considered) by many:

Who, among the 146 respondents, did they name as being in their Top 2, Top 3, Top 4, or Top 5?

[Main takeaway:  Sarah Palin’s Top Choice support is strong but additional support is not wide-spread.  Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry have the widest appeal among RedStaters at this time.  Herman Cain and Tim Pawlenty rise as Sarah Palin fades.]

Named in Top 2:

Candidate Votes in Top 2 Percentage
Michele Bachmann 68 46.6%
Rick Perry 61 41.8%
Sarah Palin 42 28.8%
Tim Pawlenty 39 26.7%
Herman Cain 26 17.8%
Mitt Romney 20 13.7%
John Bolton 8 5.5%
Jon Huntsman 8 5.5%
Ron Paul 7 4.8%
Rick Santorum 6 4.1%
Gary Johnson 5 3.4%
Newt Gingrich 2 1.4%

 

Named in Top 3:

Candidate Votes in Top 3 Percentage
Michele Bachmann 97 66.4%
Rick Perry 84 57.5%
Herman Cain 60 41.1%
Sarah Palin 55 37.7%
Tim Pawlenty 54 37.0%
Mitt Romney 25 17.1%
John Bolton 17 11.6%
Ron Paul 13 8.9%
Rick Santorum 12 8.2%
Jon Huntsman 11 7.5%
Gary Johnson 8 5.5%
Newt Gingrich 2 1.4%

 

Named in Top 4:

Candidate Votes in Top 4 Percentage
Michele Bachmann 116 79.5%
Rick Perry 104 71.2%
Herman Cain 88 60.3%
Sarah Palin 69 47.3%
Tim Pawlenty 70 47.9%
Mitt Romney 39 26.7%
John Bolton 28 19.2%
Ron Paul 15 10.3%
Rick Santorum 22 15.1%
Jon Huntsman 15 10.3%
Gary Johnson 11 7.5%
Newt Gingrich 7 4.8%

 

Named in Top 5:

Candidate Votes in Top 5 Percentage
Michele Bachmann 124 84.9%
Rick Perry 113 77.4%
Herman Cain 103 70.5%
Tim Pawlenty 96 65.8%
Sarah Palin 79 54.1%
Mitt Romney 49 33.6%
Rick Santorum 49 33.6%
John Bolton 45 30.8%
Jon Huntsman 19 13.0%
Ron Paul 19 13.0%
Gary Johnson 14 9.6%
Newt Gingrich 10 6.8%
Would not vote in the primary 10 6.8%

 

 

2nd Preferences of supporters of candidate X:

We saw how Sarah Palin and Rick Perry supporters in this survey would move if they were not in.

Who are the 2nd choices of some of the other candidates’ supporters?

Those who chose Michele Bachmann (25 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Herman Cain 8
Rick Perry 7
Tim Pawlenty 4
Sarah Palin 2
Mitt Romney 2
Rick Santorum 2

 

Those who chose Tim Pawlenty (15 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Rick Perry 7
Michele Bachmann 5
Mitt Romney 2
Herman Cain 1

 

Those who chose Mitt Romney (12 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Tim Pawlenty 3
Michele Bachmann 2
John Bolton 2
Jon Huntsman 2
Rick Perry 2
Herman Cain 1

 

Those who chose Herman Cain (6 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Michele Bachmann 3
Sarah Palin 1
Tim Pawlenty 1
Rick Perry 1

 

Those who chose Ron Paul (6 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Herman Cain 2
Gary Johnson 2
Michele Bachmann 1
Newt Gingrich 1

 

Those who chose John Bolton (4 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Rick Perry 2
Michele Bachmann 1
Jon Huntsman 1

 

Those who chose Rick Santorum (4 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Michele Bachmann 2
Sarah Palin 1
Tim Pawlenty 1

 

Those who chose Jon Huntsman (3 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Mitt Romney 2
John Bolton 1

 

Those who chose Gary Johnson (3 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Michele Bachmann 2
Ron Paul 1

 

Those who chose Newt Gingrich (1 voter) also liked (2nd choice):

Michele Bachmann 1

 

 

Iterative Elimination:

What happens to the results when the lowest vote getters are systematically removed such that their 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th choices must come into play?

Based on the Top Choice results, Gingrich is the first candidate eliminated due to being the lowest vote-getter.

Top Choice Results (Round 2):

Candidate Votes Percentage
Sarah Palin 36 24.7%
Rick Perry 31 21.2%
Michele Bachmann 26 17.8%
Tim Pawlenty 15 10.3%
Mitt Romney 12 8.2%
Herman Cain 6 4.1%
Ron Paul 6 4.1%
John Bolton 4 2.7%
Rick Santorum 4 2.7%
Jon Huntsman 3 2.1%
Gary Johnson 3 2.1%

 

Based on the results of Round 2, the lowest vote-getters – Huntsman and Johnson – are eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 3):

Candidate Votes Percentage
Sarah Palin 36 24.7%
Rick Perry 31 21.2%
Michele Bachmann 28 19.2%
Tim Pawlenty 15 10.3%
Mitt Romney 14 9.6%
Ron Paul 7 4.8%
Herman Cain 6 4.1%
John Bolton 5 3.4%
Rick Santorum 4 2.7%

 

Based on the results of Round 3, the lowest vote-getter (Santorum) is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 4):

Candidate Votes Percentage
Sarah Palin 37 25.3%
Rick Perry 31 21.2%
Michele Bachmann 30 20.5%
Tim Pawlenty 16 11.0%
Mitt Romney 14 9.6%
Ron Paul 7 4.8%
Herman Cain 6 4.1%
John Bolton 5 3.4%

 

Based on the results of Round 4, the lowest vote-getter (Bolton) is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 5):

Candidate Votes Percentage
Sarah Palin 37 25.3%
Rick Perry 34 23.3%
Michele Bachmann 31 21.2%
Tim Pawlenty 16 11.0%
Mitt Romney 14 9.6%
Herman Cain 7 4.8%
Ron Paul 7 4.8%

 

Based on the results of Round 5, the lowest vote-getters – Cain and Paul – are eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 6):

Candidate Votes Percentage
Sarah Palin 39 26.7%
Michele Bachmann 38 26.0%
Rick Perry 35 24.0%
Tim Pawlenty 18 12.3%
Mitt Romney 14 9.6%
Would not vote 2 1.4%

 

Based on the results of Round 6, the lowest vote-getter (Romney) is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 7):

Candidate Votes Percentage
Michele Bachmann 42 28.8%
Sarah Palin 40 27.4%
Rick Perry 37 25.3%
Tim Pawlenty 24 16.4%
Would not vote 2 1.4%
None of Top 5 picked 1 0.7%

 

Based on the results of Round 7, the lowest vote-getter (Pawlenty) is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 8):

Candidate Votes Percentage
Michele Bachmann 52 35.6%
Rick Perry 50 34.2%
Sarah Palin 40 27.4%
Would not vote 2 1.4%
None of Top 5 picked 2 1.4%

 

Based on the results of Round 8, the lowest vote-getter (Palin) is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 9):  (FINAL RESULT!!)

Candidate Votes Percentage
Michele Bachmann 72 49.3%
Rick Perry 66 45.2%
None of Top 5 picked 5 3.4%
Would not vote 3 2.1%

 

But my candidate wasn’t in there!?!?

I know, I know…  I’ll get Thad McCotter in there next time.  That sneaky fellow!

I’ll try to keep an eye out for other potential candidates as well…

 

Thanks and Invitation

If you were one of the 146, thanks for your participation!  If you weren’t, I hope you will participate in the next Primary Preference Poll.  The next poll is likely to launch sometime in August.  Keep an eye out for it!