Diary

Results: May 2011 Primary Preference Polling of RedStaters

Thanks to all RedStaters who participated in the inaugural Primary Preference Poll – Pick 4.

LEGALESE:  The following results are descriptive statistics about the set of RedStaters who followed directions when participating in the poll (no hanging chads considered here).  This is not a scientific poll.  This is not generalizable beyond the description of the participants…  But it is fun and a bit intriguing, if I say so myself.  Thanks for participating!  Please look to participate in the next survey:  likely mid-late June.

Redstaters were invited to participate in a one-minute survey (through SurveyMonkey) to indicate their first, second, third and fourth picks for the Republican presidential nomination from among the following candidate options (alphabetical order):  Michele Bachmann, John Bolton, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum.

Of 105 responses received during the week of May 22-28, 2011, the vast majority (102) followed the directions for inclusion in the poll results.  (For the 3, next time please do not enter the same name for two different placements).  For the n=102, the first choice of participating RedStaters was:

Top Choice results:

Candidate

Votes

Percentage

Sarah Palin

30

29.4%

Herman Cain

29

28.4%

Tim Pawlenty

24

23.5%

Mitt Romney

6

5.9%

Michele Bachmann

3

2.9%

Jon Huntsman

3

2.9%

Gary Johnson

3

2.9%

Ron Paul

3

2.9%

John Bolton

1

1.0%

Newt Gingrich

0

0.0%

Rick Santorum

0

0.0%

 

But what happens if Sarah doesn’t run?

Using the 2nd choice of those whose first choice was Sarah Palin, the candidates who gain from her absence are:

Candidate

Gain

Herman Cain

+10

Michele Bachmann

+6

John Bolton

+6

Rick Santorum

+4

Tim Pawlenty

+2

Gary Johnson

+1

Ron Paul

+1

Newt Gingrich

0

Jon Huntsman

0

Mitt Romney

0

 

[For these Redstaters, Sarah Palin’s entry would take out almost all of the oxygen in the room for Bachmann, Bolton and Santorum – and lessen the first choice appeal of Cain.]

Adjusting the results to reflect the race without Sarah gives us the following Top Choice results:

Candidate

Votes

Percentage

Herman Cain

39

38.2%

Tim Pawlenty

26

25.5%

Michele Bachmann

9

8.8%

John Bolton

7

6.9%

Mitt Romney

6

5.9%

Gary Johnson

4

3.9%

Ron Paul

4

3.9%

Rick Santorum

4

3.9%

Jon Huntsman

3

2.9%

Newt Gingrich

0

0.0%

 

 

Let’s cut the data some additional ways to consider the possibilities… 

 

Liked (or at least considered) by many:

Who, among the 102 respondents, did they name as being in their Top 2, Top 3, or Top 4?

Named in Top 2:

Candidate

Votes in Top 2

Percentage

Herman Cain

52

51.0%

Tim Pawlenty

38

37.3%

Sarah Palin

37

36.3%

Michele Bachmann

22

21.6%

Ron Paul

11

10.8%

Mitt Romney

11

10.8%

John Bolton

9

8.8%

Gary Johnson

8

7.8%

Jon Huntsman

7

6.9%

Rick Santorum

6

5.9%

Newt Gingrich

3

2.9%

 

Named in Top 3:

Candidate

Votes in Top 3

Percentage

Herman Cain

61

59.8%

Sarah Palin

50

49.0%

Tim Pawlenty

50

49.0%

Michele Bachmann

38

37.3%

John Bolton

28

27.5%

Mitt Romney

21

20.6%

Rick Santorum

17

16.7%

Ron Paul

15

14.7%

Jon Huntsman

13

12.7%

Gary Johnson

8

7.8%

Newt Gingrich

5

4.9%

 

Named in Top 4:

Candidate

Votes in Top 4

Percentage

Herman Cain

72

70.6%

Sarah Palin

63

61.8%

Tim Pawlenty

60

58.8%

Michele Bachmann

50

49.0%

John Bolton

35

34.3%

Mitt Romney

34

33.3%

Rick Santorum

32

31.4%

Ron Paul

19

18.6%

Jon Huntsman

17

16.7%

Newt Gingrich

10

9.8%

Gary Johnson

10

9.8%

Would not vote in the primary

6

5.9%

 

2nd Preferences of supporters of candidate X:

We saw how Sarah supporters in this survey would move if she was not in.

Who are the 2nd choices of some of the other candidates’ supporters?

Those who chose Herman Cain (29 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Michele Bachmann

10

Tim Pawlenty

8

Sarah Palin

3

Ron Paul

3

Mitt Romney

3

John Bolton

1

Newt Gingrich

1

 

Those who chose Tim Pawlenty (24 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Herman Cain

8

Michele Bachmann

3

Jon Huntsman

3

Newt Gingrich

2

Sarah Palin

2

Mitt Romney

2

Rick Santorum

2

John Bolton

1

Gary Johnson

1

 

Those who chose Mitt Romney (6 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Herman Cain

2

Tim Pawlenty

2

Jon Huntsman

1

Ron Paul

1

 

Those who chose Michele Bachmann (3 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Sarah Palin

2

Herman Cain

1

 

Those who chose Jon Huntsman (3 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Gary Johnson

2

Tim Pawlenty

1

 

Those who chose Gary Johnson (3 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Ron Paul

3

 

Those who chose Ron Paul (3 voters) also liked (2nd choice):

Herman Cain

1

Gary Johnson

1

Tim Pawlenty

1

 

Those who chose John Bolton (1 voter) also liked (2nd choice):

Herman Cain

1

 

 

Iterative Elimination:

What happens to the results when the lowest vote getters are systematically removed such that their 2nd, 3rd and 4th choices must come into play? 

Based on the Top Choice results, Gingrich and Santorum are automatically eliminated due to receiving no Top Choice votes.  Round 2 is conducted based on also eliminating Bolton as the lowest vote-getter.

Top Choice Results (Round 2):

Herman Cain

30

Sarah Palin

30

Tim Pawlenty

24

Mitt Romney

6

Michele Bachmann

3

Jon Huntsman

3

Gary Johnson

3

Ron Paul

3

 

Based on the results of Round 2, the lowest vote-getters – Bachmann, Huntsman, Johnson and Paul – are eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 3):

Sarah Palin

35

Herman Cain

32

Tim Pawlenty

26

Mitt Romney

7

None of Top 4 Picks

2

 

Based on the results of Round 3, the lowest vote-getter (Romney) is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 4):

Herman Cain

35

Sarah Palin

35

Tim Pawlenty

29

None of Top 4 Picks

3

 

Based on the results of Round 4, the lowest vote-getter (Pawlenty) is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 5):

Herman Cain

50

Sarah Palin

42

None of Top 4 Picks

9

Would not vote in primary

1

 

But my candidate wasn’t in there!?!?

I know, I know…  Who to include?  Who to exclude?  Due to this concern, I did have an extra question regarding who should have been included on the survey list.  Results:

Name

Mentions

Rick Perry

13

Chris Christie

11

Allen West

7

Rudy Giuliani

4

Paul Ryan

4

Jeb Bush

2

Bobby Jindal

2

Buddy Roemer

2

Donald Trump

2

Glenn Beck

1

Pat Buchanan

1

Liz Cheney

1

Mike Huckabee

1

Rush Limbaugh

1

Fred Karger

1

Peter King

1

Thad McCotter

1

Roy Moore

1

Rand Paul

1

Mike Pence

1

Zombie Reagan

1

Condoleeza Rice

1

Scott Walker

1

 

I will take this feedback (combined with upcoming news reports and prospective candidate announcements) into account in future survey activity.

 

Thanks and Invitation

If you were one of the 102, thanks for your participation!

If you weren’t, I hope you will participate in the next Primary Preference Poll – Pick 4.  The next poll is likely to launch sometime during the week of June 19th.   Keep an eye out for it!