Diary

Midterm Elections: Is A Silent Red Wave Coming ?

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Promoted from the diaries by streiff. Promotion does not imply endorsement.
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In A Slew Of Polling Data May Well Lay The Key To The Midterms

Friday’s Rasmussen Reports has a mass of polling data most of it looking very good for the GOP.  The generic congressional candidate poll is within the margin of error, of +/- 2%

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-four percent (44%) would opt for the Republican. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided. The survey of 2,500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 21-25, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence

—Rasmussen Reports

What’s more if you have been following the polls that gap has closed from polls having it as high as +7 to +9 in early polls when the blue wave was going to wipe out the GOP this election.

While this is great news especially, especially when you consider that solid majorities now approve of the president’s job performance and his handling of immigration. The big news is that Rasmussen has found empirical evidence of something that most of us already knew.

The Silent Majority Is Silent.

I know it’s beyond obvious but we never actually see it talked about let alone measured.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 60% of Likely Democratic Voters say they are more likely to let others know how they intend to vote this year compared to previous congressional elections. This compares to 49% of Republicans and 40% of voters not affiliated with either major political party

In August 2016 52% of Democrats were more likely to let others know how they intended to vote in the upcoming presidential election, compared to 46% of Republicans and 34% of unaffiliated voters. Some analysts before and after Donald Trump’s upset victory suggested that most pollsters missed his hidden support among voters fearful of criticism who were unwilling to say where they stood.

Similarly when asked now about family, friends and co-workers, 60% of Democrats say they are also more likely to tell others how they intend to vote, but only 46% of Republicans and 45% of unaffiliated voters agree.

—Rasmussen Reports

Executive summary Democrats are louder and more obnoxious than Republicans and far more so than independents. What’s more when asked about if they voted in midterms 77% of Republicans said they always voted in the midterms vs 71% for Democrats.

What Does This Tell Us ?

We have polling that has this election at a statistical dead heat (If you haven’t voted yet for heavens sake please do). We have Republicans significantly more likely to vote and and Democrats both being personally inherently louder than Conservative Leaners / Republicans and being amplified by mass media’s megaphone. Overall I would say that paints a rather hopeful picture for the GOP this election. It may not be a Red Tidal Wave but maybe we are going to have a Red Tide