Hold on, hold on. The title here is what is known in the writing biz as a “metaphor”.
Polling, while being more of an exacting art than it was a generation ago, is really nothing more than guesswork– albeit, guesswork based on the inexactitude of earlier guesses. My sense (that, and $1.75 will get you a cup of coffee at McDonald’s) is that the Republicans will pick up a net gain of 63 House seats on November 2nd. They will also rule the Senate by Wednesday Morning, 52-48. Not to put too fine a point on it, but I “sensed” McCain would choose Sarah Palin as his running mate back in late April of ’08. Yep, I impress even myself…
Of course, this sort of mammoth Republican victory has been my “sense” for three or four months now. My sense is based on several bits of intuitive guesswork–my own kind of “polling”, as it were.
First, that liberal Democrats have never won major national elections based on the merit of their ideas, or upon the articulation of their worldview (-whatever that might be, beyond institutional graft). They win when outside forces meddle in the free flow of events. Or, when they steal elections. Or when the perception is that Republicans have screwed up. NEVER and I repeat, NEVER has a major Democrat victory been achieved because America woke up one day and collectively said “Gee. America sucks. The Democrats have persuaded me to vote for them because, darnit, Marxism is better than liberty.”
No, Democrats win when Richard J. Daley is counting the votes –at least, those that didn’t get thrown in Lake Michigan– in Chicago (JFK, 1960). Democrats win when the nation mourns for a lost President, and the sympathy vote comes in torrents (LBJ, 1964). Democrats win when the Republicans screw up (Jimmy Carter — barely, 1976, and Barack Obama, 2008).
Second, there simply is no guiding Democrat world view that queues up, people admire, and then vote for. People vote for it if their husband is a School Bus driver, or their wife is a teacher, or if Dad is a rabid union steward. Or they think they deserve some government “benefit”. Beyond stingy self-interest, people aren’t motivated to vote Democrat based on intellectual persuasion.
Which brings us to where we are today. The Democrats will lose in spectacular fashion because, during perilous times, people want ideas on how best to diminish the peril (unless, as I noted above, the Republicans in power screw up, as they did in 2008, and then all bets are off). Democrats simply don’t conduct themselves in the arena of ideas. They simply play on the peril, and warn those to whom access to other people’s wallets and tax receipts are their business model, that voting for Republicans may result in cutting off their gravy-train.
The meritorious nature of Republican vote-getting is NEVER factored into polling data because it can’t be: To suggest this would put an end to public polling. But the evidence is clear: People are flocking to Republican and conservative candidates not because the Democrats screwed up (people almost expect Democrats to screw up) in the previous 22 months; people are flocking to Republicans because they understand intellectually both the nature of where conservatism wants to take the nation, and what the results of unbridled radical liberalism are. This can’t be summed up, by the way, in some sort of amorphous “enthusiasm gap”. It can only be summed up as voters saying, “Oh. I see your point now”. This is called “persuasion”, not “enthusiasm”, per sey.
But, more to MY point (and more to the title of this Diary entry):
To use a good golf analogy–We will crush our drive on Tuesday, November Second: straight down the fairway, right up to the apron of the green. Then, things can go haywire.
But, I have a plan to mitigate the danger:
THE OBAMA VETO-TALLY.
We all know that Mr. Obama cannot countenance the spectre of actual Conservatives telling him what to do, and when to do it, so his veto pen will need gallons of ink. This is a forgone conclusion. Therefore, the incoming Freshman Republicans in both the House and the Senate should, on the second day of the 2011 session, hang electronic signs in their respective chambers, that keep a running tally of the vetoes that President Obama issues. Of course, these nifty LED signs should be hung where they are highly visible on C-SPAN. Every time the new conservative majorities send the President a piece of legislation, be it de-funding Obamacare, or eliminating the Commerce Department, or what-have-you, and he scrawls all over it with his mammoth left-handed veto-pen, they add it to the running tally.
That way, when BO starts campaigning against the “Do Nothing Congress”, the congress can say, no, we are the “Do Everything Congress –, and the President just says ‘NO’ to all of it”, and then they can invoke the dozens of vetoes the President cum Community Organizer has issued. And point to the Tally Signs.
We must make sure that all the cameras are trained on those signs as they swiftly add up the totals, day over day, week over week.
Yep, this is the sort of thing that throws down the legislative gauntlet: But, then, gauntlets are appropriate in Obama’s age of “hand to hand combat” in the Congress. And, this is the sort of thing we need to do to make sure we don’t three-putt after our crushing drive.