Louisiana Senate Races Loses "Toss-Up" Designation

I put up a post a while back marking the race for Mary Landrieu’s (LA-D) Senate seat a toss-up, which showed some popularity in the idea of replacing Landrieu with someone else. Currently, the leader in the “Someone Else” category is Bill Cassidy, who is currently a Republican Congressman from the Baton Rouge area. Cassidy is the classic establishment pick, a yes man for GOP leadership, and likewise the exact opposite of what RedState, Madison Project and others have called for – the candidate of choice in that regard is Rob Maness (I’m already on the record as support Maness, but that’s not the point of this post).

The current problem with the race is that we’re still a year out – that’s a long time in any race, and a great many things can change. What’s true today might not necessarily be true tomorrow or two months from now, much less twelve months from now. So, you’ve got a lot of uncertainty, which could be a reason that we’re now looking at a “leaning Democratic” race here in Louisiana.

Currently, Landrieu is one of a handful of Democrats up for re-election in red states now openly calling for a delay in the individual mandate. It’s been a very interesting thing to watch her doubling down on Obamacare over the summer (saying she’d vote for it again) to now calling for a delay of the mandate. It’s telling that, while PPP (known for its integrity, of course) is showing her at +10 right now, she is still shifting a little in her Obamacare stance.

Still, this does not bode well for Cassidy (who has been featured in every state paper as the lead Republican candidate) and to a lesser extent Maness. However, Louisiana’s elections take place in a “jungle primary,” which means all the candidates are lumped in together in the primary and the top two, be they Republican and Democrat, two Republicans or two Democrats, face each other in the run-off. That is assuming, of course, that no one gets above 50%. Governor Bobby Jindal won re-election pretty easily in the primary despite (or perhaps because of) a large number of Democratic challengers.

Again, we’re still a year out, but one thing is clear – Casssidy has not defined himself in areas outside of Baton Rouge. His name recognition is not very high (neither is Maness’ at the moment) and Landrieu is currently sitting on a lot more (Big Energy) money. Time will tell, but consider getting out there to support a Republican over the woman who received a boat load of money for allowing the Obamacare vote to go forward in the Senate.