Crossposted at OpinionTimes.com
Yes, I have weeded through as many polls as I can, studied carefully all the various situations in each state, and I have come to the conclusion that we just don’t know what will happen today.
Clearly Barack Obama is the odds on favorite to become President on January 20, 2009. But there are trends out there which suggest that John McCain has some momentum coming into today. Here are some factors to consider as you watch the results come in tonight:
Early Voting is becoming a more important factor in elections than ever. What was the mind of voters in the last month as they submitted their ballots? Did Obama’s strong lead during that time give him the edge? Did young voters vote in greater numbers? What was the ACORN effect if any?
Will Pennsylvania materialize for McCain? If so, he still may not win the election.
If Obama wins Florida or Ohio, the election is over. I don’t see any way for McCain to pull out a victory without these two states.
But there is no guarantee McCain wins if he grabs Florida and Ohio. Virginia will likely fall into Obama’s hands. Then Pennsylvania becomes crucial for a McCain victory if he can pull out a surprise win in Colorado.
Polls in Minnesota, which does not have substantial early voting, began to tighten this last week. McCain may have a chance there. If McCain wins a stunning upset in independent minded Minnesota, he will likely win the Presidency.
Republican turnout will be better than expected. There is something happening which is organic in the conservative grassroots for which the media never accounts. And McCain’s campaign came so late into the grassroots game, their organization is merely riding the wave that the Sarah Palin nomination whipped up. This will bring Ohio and Florida into McCain’s grasp. Will it also bring states like Pennsylvania, Colorado and Virginia into play?
So, without further ado, here is my electoral map projecting Barack Obama grabs 291 electoral votes on his way to the White House. McCain gathers a respectable 247. But I am crossing my fingers for good things from Pennsylvania, Colorado and Virginia.
Check out the map at OpinionTimes.com