Diary

Israel, Iran, the Free-World’s weakest leader, and World War III

Now that the Supreme Court drama is over (for now), I present to you the next of Obama’s many failed policies.  If it occurs sometime between April and September, as I expect it will, it bring Obama’s Presidency to his knees.

I am talking about what I believe is the upcoming attack by Israel on Iran.  I have read that Israel has cancelled the upcoming Holiday, and has called in all its reservists.  While some may believe it may just be posturing on Netanyahu’s part, I disagree.  Netanyahu is a True Warrior, Obama is a fly.  Netanyahu knows exactly what the entire world leaders know; that is that Obama is one of, if not the weakest American President in the history of America.  He also knows, from Obama’s  first open-microphone gaffe in Paris France, where Obama himself made it clear to the French President that Israel was not Obama’s favorite country.  Netanyahu also knows that if Israel attacks Iran, Obama will most likely lose the upcoming presidential election.   Ole’ Joe Biden recently confirmed this at a speech he gave.  It is alleged that Obama offered Netanyahu advanced bunker-buster bombs if Israel held off the attack until after America’s November election.  Accusations by Israel of the White House leaking Israel’s battle plans to the press only add credence to Obama’s desperate need to hold off an attack by Israel on Iran.  Does anyone think Netanyahu wants to work with Obama for four more years than work with Mitt Romney?  No brainer.  There is nothing that Obama can give Netanyahu to stop being the Warrior that he is.  Obama will always be the fly.

And now, Obama has signaled to the world, that he is willing to roll-over on an Iranian nuclear program.  In actuality, he was going to roll-over all along.  Everyone that knows Obama knew that, most significantly, Netanyahu.  Obama’s latest roll-over in a long line of roll-overs, only confirms to Netanyahu that Israel must act for its own defense, and be prepared to act unilaterally if needed.  This is a very dangerous position for Obama to put Israel in.

The understanding I get from what I have been reading is that if Israel attacks Iran, and has a perfect attack, (that Israel hits all its intended targets) such an attack would set Iran’s quest for the nuclear bomb back a year, maybe two at most.  It would take a sustained attack to do more damage.  The only country that has the operational capacity for a sustained attack is the United States.

There are two ways Ahmadinejad and the Iranian leadership could go; ignore it, or go crazy – man, Katie-bar-the-door counter attack.  Iran has been spoiling for a fight with Israel since Ahmadinejad became President.   I believe that is why he was made President.  So I don’t see the Iranian leadership giving Israel a free-pass no matter how insignificant the damage an attack may end up being.

What I see as the likely response from Iran is an orchestrated attempt to completely over-whelm Israel’s defense.  While this may seem obvious, things have changed in the past few months with the uprisings in Syria, Egypt, and to a lesser extent Libya.  Syria is well, Syria, they might as well be Iran’s “Mini-Me.”  Egypt is being taken over by the Muslim Brotherhood.  Not a good omen in any light.  There has already been a rocket attack from Egypt into Israel.  The peace accord that Egypt had with Israel might as well be used for very scratchy toilet paper now.  If Israel attacks Iran I foresee Iran, Syria, Hezbollah vis-à-vis Lebanon, and very now very likely Egypt, going after Israel.

The dirty little secret in Iraq is that they did have chemical weapons of mass destruction.  Republicans didn’t want to admit it because they knew about them, and did not find them; made for very bad optics, incompetence being foremost.  The democrats could not acknowledge WMD’s in Iraq, because that would validate President Bush’s desire to go to invade Iraq.  Liberals can’t have a war that is a valid one; it’s not in their color-wheel.  A search of the Wikileaks for WMD’s attests to this fact.  Over 2,500 chemical weapons from Iraq have been found in Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan.  It would be no surprise to me that Syria has the majority of Iraq’s stockpile, and has been the major distributer of chemical WMD to Afghanistan and Pakistan.  Imagine if Syria and Hezbollah used chemical WMD’s on Israel?  In short order Israel’s next attack on Iran, and Iran’s supporters could go nuclear.  While Israel has never admitted to having nuclear weapons, most assuredly they do.

For America such an attack, the foremost effort would be to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to shipping.  If there are any even small problems of shipping transit in the strait, gas will be eight or more dollars a gallon than the five or six we are expecting this summer.  If a US Navy ship suffers major damage, or is sunk while patrolling the strait, gas prices would go up even further with the escalation of the war.  At best, with Obama, maybe the defense of Israel is the second priority.  Who knows?  No one knows what Obama would do in such a scenario.  He most assuredly would give a heartfelt speech, saying that the Israelis acted “Stupidly.”  From past experiences any response from Obama would be weak.

However, I do not believe that Obama is alone in this.  I do not believe that America has the will for an “All-In” War.  The last time America was “All-In” was World War II.  We had to be.  Our way of life was at threat.  I am astonished at America’s reaction to 9/11.  Within six months most Americans not directly affected by the attack on 9/11 pretty much went on with their lives.  The thing that I did not understand, and still do not understand, is that if there are two billion Muslims in the world, and ten percent are radicalized, equates to 200 million potential combatants!  I’m not being racist here; I am simply taking ten-percent from a quantity of two- billion.  That is roughly two-thirds the population of the United States!  Post 9/11, there was no draft, no bond sales, no rationing of materials, and no national mobilization of any type.  And remember that this was an asymmetric war from the start.  We could have to be fighting in all points of the globe, most not immediately known.  It was a very large equation that started with 200 million potential combatants with a gigantic unknown.   Where are they all?  So for America not going “All-In” after 9/11 I don’t know what it would take.  Iran may force the United States to finally go, ”All-In” in confronting terror in the Middle East.

The really big problem with Israel attacking alone is time.  They most likely will only get one shot.  Time-on-target.  Much like a scuba diver that is going deep, they only have minutes on the bottom.  The time is spent getting there and back.  Assuming that Israel only uses conventional munitions the damage will be moderate at best.  And it will be only the surface targets that get hit the worst.  Buried targets below five-hundred feet could be hit with bunker-busters.  But beyond that it would take repeated sorties to hit target deeper.

Unfortunately for either Israel or the United States the best weapon to reach deeply buried structures would be tactical nuclear bunker-busters.  Such a program was fast-tracked several years ago.  Such weapons would do several things well; they would destroy either directly or by seismic blast wave any structure buried a thousand feet or more, and the radiation would make repair of any structure impossible.  Since the blast occurs underground, there would be less fallout as compared to an air-burst nuclear bomb.  Do we have a President, and as American’s, are we willing to go “All-In”?  Are we willing to use a nuclear bomb if that was the perfect weapon for the mission?  I don’t think so.  Not yet.  Hezbollah may change all that.

Recent congressional testimony indicated that Hezbollah may have a thousand or more funding organizations, and hundreds of sleeper-cells in the United States.  No doubt Iran would not think twice about activating them if America entered into the fray.  With our porous borders it would not be a stretch of the imagination to think that those sleeper-cells have chemical WDM’s here in the United States.  Imagine a cool, crisp, fall Saturday at a college football game.   Several college stadiums capacities are in excess of one-hundred-thousand people.  Imagine Hezbollah using chemical WMD during at such a game?  Several tens-of-thousands would be killed on live TV.  Would we be willing to go “All-In” then?

The problem with any country using nuclear weapons is that if one country uses it, then other counties think they are within their right to use them.  Then suddenly all past grievances and insults between counties are to be paid for in full.  India may attack Pakistan using nuclear weapons.  The Soviet Union would look at its own expansion.  With a nuclear diversion, China may finally try to overtake Taiwan which they see as China’s property.  It would be very possible that the United States, South Korea, and Japan, if they did not have their hands too full with China’s attempt at expansion, would finally put North Korea out of its suffering.

My point here is that an attack by Israel may not only open one Pandora’s Box, but a whole series of them in rapid succession.  This could not come a worst time; when we have a sixteen trillion dollar debt (World Wars cost money), and when we have the weakest President in the history of the United States history leading the fight.  It is fight that I believe is coming soon.