Diary

In A Twist of Irony, Rs Need Castle To Be Write-In

As Mike Castle considers a write-in candidacy for the Senate seat in Delaware, Republicans with any hope of winning the Delaware seat should cheer him on.  Yes, we who have (rightly) excoriated Lisa Murkowski in Alaska, should be praying that Castle jumps into the race.  “How can this be?” you may ask…it is pretty simple actually:

1) Christine O’Donnell, although well meaning, sincere, pleasant, and the more conservative candidate in the Delaware Republican primary, is a political mess.  The dust is settling, it has been ten days since her stunning upset of Castle, and she has gotten nowhere in the polls.  She is steadily 15 points behind Coons and it appears is slowly losing ground.  The exciting 1.5 million dollars raised from the first 36 hours after her primary win has diminished significantly and she has brought in roughly .7 million in the past 8 days.  

Though none of us are perfect, most of us have not said our “bone-headed stuff” on the Bill Maher show.  Her voracious desire to be on TV, be recognized, and have her 15 minutes of fame over the years have destroyed her pre-candidate biography and she is currently a “30 second sound-bite mine field”.  It is likely that her current favorability and polling numbers have in fact peaked due to the deluge of bad press framing her, correctly or incorrectly, as a non-serious candidate.  This is a result of the outside negative press but fueled and kept alive by her own foolish past comments and interviews.  If Christine is going to win, and that is a BIG “if”, she is going to need some help…

2) Enter Chris Coons.  He is an inexperienced and flawed candidate who also has a questionable past.  He has said and done some things which leave him as the leading candidate in Delaware by default.  In a liberal state like Delaware he is currently the lesser of two evils.  Regular Delaware folks who may be inclined to jump on the current political “wave” and vote the bums out are probably scared off by the extreme label effectively placed on O’Donnell.  These middle ground people will either not vote or when they vote they will begrudgingly cast their vote with Coons.  There is a very soft middle in Delaware as seen in the drastic difference in polling between Castle & Coons (Castle by 15 points) and Coons & O’Donnell (Coons by 15 points).  That is a swing of 30 points and 30 points is a great base from which to start for a 3rd party candidacy.  It is obvious that Coons is weak and between he and O’Donnell the field could be ripe for…

3) Mike Castle reenters the race as a write in candidate and accomplishes one of two things.  If he reframes himself as the credible Delaware-conservative candidate to stop Washington he could serve the Conservative cause quite well in denying the Dems the senate this cycle and helping achieve a possible 60 seats in the next wave election, 2012.  Those who have walked through the embarrassment of O’Donnell the past 2 weeks are probably with her for the long run.  Her support will most likely not drop below 30-33 percent.  That leaves 70-67% of the electorate still up for grabs.  If Mike Castle jumps in and can take 30-33 percent of the remaining electorate, we have a 3-way barnburner in Delaware on November 2nd.  This is VERY GOOD NEWS…

If Christine O’Donnell is a good candidate and can turn things around, she will only need 35-37% of the vote to win.  If O’Donnell continues to drag and holds 30% support, Castle only needs to get 35-37% of the vote in order for him to win the seat.  What this does is increase the less than 15% odds of winning the seat in the current political landscape and increases the odds both for O’Donnell and for himself should he enter.  Either way, it appears Castle helps the Republicans win this seat.   

Finally, this is especially important as it appears that the Republicans may land right on a 9 seat pickup in November.  How sad will we will be if next January the Senate stays in the Dems hands on a tie-breaking vote by Delaware’s former Senator because Delaware’s new senator grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat because of the well intentioned but ineffective upset in the Republican primary back on September 14th. 

Since the primary Delaware has become an afterthought and is dropping off the radar as a possible flip for Republicans.  Castle’s entry could help him and O’Donnell and definitely helps the cause of taking back the Senate this cycle and making a push for 60 in 2012.