If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. That’s conventional wisdom and it’s usually valid. Very few things that Donald Trump has done in this election cycle can be construed as obeying conventional anything, so it makes sense that his tactics are changing. When we look deeper, it’s becoming clearer that this is a man with a very clever plan. To paraphrase what Marco Rubio said about President Obama, “Let’s dispel with this fiction that Donald Trump doesn’t know what he’s doing. He knows exactly what he’s doing.”
First, let’s look at the plan itself. Then, we’ll make insane accusations. We’ll finish it off with the brilliance of his plan and why it absolutely, positively must be stopped.
When you’re consistently getting 1/3rd of the vote with five candidates on the ballot, you keep doing what you’re doing. As people fall off, your numbers are bound to go up. That’s sound political campaign advice and it’s not what Donald Trump is going to do. He’s too smart for that.
Instead, Trump is going to reverse on his own personality a bit ahead of schedule. This is the shift that normally happens after the nomination is locked, but he needs it in order to lock in the nomination itself. He needs Republicans to like him more. We know that he’s performed well with “Trump Democrats” in open primary states but has fallen far short of expectations and polls in the closed primary states. In other words, he has to get actual registered Republicans to jump on the Trump train or he’s going to underperform again right when he needs to win the most.
Now that Super Tuesday is over, he’s preparing for the big delegate haul on March 15 when the winner-takes-all primaries take effect. To win these, he needs most Republicans to vote for him because only 10 open primary states remain. Of the 13 states plus Puerto Rico and Washington DC that have primaries or caucus between now and March 15, only six of them are open. Included in the nine closed primaries is Florida, a must-win for Trump if he wants to avoid a contested convention.
Knowing all of this, his demeanor is changing. He’s trying to be the unifier. He wants Republicans who hate him to do two things: consider him a foregone conclusion and accept that he’s better than Hillary Clinton. If he can pull off one of his famous character conversions in the minds of GOP voters, he might be able to suspend disbelief long enough to get reluctant Republicans on his side. He knows he has a problem with Republicans who will not stand with him even if he’s the nominee.
This won’t be hard for him. After all, he’s very capable of changing to anything he want to change to.
Democratic Sabotage Conspiracy Theory
Now it’s time for wild accusations. While I don’t believe there’s a large organized effort by Democrats to sabotage the Republican party and earn Hillary Clinton a victory by going to open primaries and voting for Trump, I do believe that it’s likely a scenario that is playing out on a small scale. The problem is that these small scale efforts, when duplicated multiple times in open primary states, can yield the desired result.
I’ve long speculated that the mainstream media has been giving him so much coverage for more than just the ratings. They, too, have an unofficial conspiracy going on where they secretly yearn for a Trump nomination for the sake of a Clinton victory in November. Now, we’re seeing that it’s likely happening among the electorate as well. To see it in full force, one only has to look at Oklahoma. This wasn’t a minor setback in Ted Cruz’s home field neighbor as the mainstream media narrative is putting it. This was an absolutely shocking loss for Trump. The three polls just prior to Super Tuesday had him ahead by over 11%, but he lost by 6% in the closed primary. The same thing on a smaller scale happened in Iowa and Alaska. This tells us definitively that his strength in the polls is at least in part fueled by Democrats posing as likely Republican voters in polls to juice up his numbers. However, in closed primaries and caucuses (other than Nevada), he fails miserably compared to the polls.
The Democrats are trying to force Trump down our throats. The only other logical explanation is that Trump has somehow convinced enough Democrats that we need to build a wall and deport 11 million people. I’m leaning towards conspiracy over mass ideological shifts. It’s sabotage.
This is Dangerous. And Beautiful. And Dangerous.
If this were fiction, I’d have a hard time believing it. There would need to be a supernatural element involved for me to believe a novel that depicted the rise of Trump so far because it defies logic. For someone so clearly counter to the values of both the Republican party and the values of the American people to be so close to the nomination, I’d be looking for the hand of Satan or alien overlords behind the scenes pulling the strings. Otherwise, I’d call it too hard to believe.
This isn’t a novel. It’s real life (as far as I can tell) and it’s strangely beautiful. If this scenario was happening in another country and would not affect me, I’d look at it as the type of strategic genius that turned the system upside down. I stare in awe at the magic spell that Trump has cast on so many. Every move is calculated. Every action is precise. It would all be highly entertaining if it weren’t so potentially disastrous for the nation.
This is why it’s dangerous. This is why it must be stopped. I’m worried about what will happen to the party if he gets the nomination and tanks in the general election as many surmise will happen. I’m even more terrified of the prospects that his magic might be stronger than anyone even knows right now. If he casts this voodoo on the country and somehow becomes the President of the United States, it could be the end of the Republic as we know it.
After his 17% underperformance in the Oklahoma closed primary, Trump knows his weakness is states where Democrats can’t sabotage Republicans to make a clearer path for Hillary Clinton. Two thirds of the upcoming primaries are closed, so Trump is shifting his magic spell to go after the Republicans that hate him most.