These are very dark times for conservatism. The sad part is that this is the best opportunity we’ve had since Pat Buchanan in 1996 to nominate a a true conservative, but we’ve all been Trumped. A case can be made that his candidacy is the reason that we have the opportunity in the first place, but that’s for another article.
Today, let’s look at the three most likely scenarios. Before we do that, it’s important to look at the math behind the nomination process as well as the primary and caucus schedule. Assuming Marco Rubio doesn’t win South Carolina, his best case scenario through the March 1 “SEC Primaries” would be to miraculously win two states out of fifteen. As my second choice for the nomination, it’s discouraging to know with an absolute certainty that he does not have a traditional path to winning the nomination. Thankfully, my first choice does.
Here are the scenarios:
- Donald Trump rolls through South Carolina and Nevada and positions himself to move up for the SEC Primaries. If his momentum of three straight victories wins him those states, he’ll end up with enough delegates to win the nomination.
- Ted Cruz performs well enough in South Carolina and Nevada to keep hope alive. Then, he wins a commanding number of delegates in the SEC Primaries, establishing himself as the only not-Trump candidate through which the rest of the party can coalesce in an effort to prevent a Trump nomination. In that scenario, he would likely win enough delegates to be nominated outright.
- Marco Rubio performs well in South Carolina. He then gets the boost from a concerted effort by mainstream media, Fox News in particular, and the Republican Establishment to become the consensus not-Trump. While he won’t be able to win enough delegates to claim the nomination outright, he can prevent Trump from getting the necessary delegates. Then, the supreme power of the Republican Establishment will swoop in and try to steal the nomination for Rubio at the convention.
The third is obviously the least likely scenario, but it’s the best-case-scenario for them. New Hampshire was a killer, but they’ve done a tremendous job of suspending disbelief in Rubio’s chances. They’re grasping at straws and this is the best straw they’ve been able to latch onto so they’re rolling with it.
They currently believe they have no chance of ousting Trump from his position of strength, so they have to move Cruz out of the way in order to achieve their consensus not-Trump status for Rubio. This is why the attacks are so hard and heavy. This is why Rubio is grabbing hold of the “liar” narrative towards Cruz. It’s why every interview that involves Cruz or any of his surrogates will paint the narrative that he’s not trustworthy. It’s why the exceptional manipulation machines of the Republican Establishment and the mainstream media are throwing everything they can possibly muster at Cruz.
It was covered in part here on Red State. Do you think it was a coincidence that Cruz’s Iowa victory was so conspicuously downplayed or that Rubio’s “miraculous” third place finish was highlighted as if he had won the state by 30 points? Isn’t it suspicious that nobody’s reporting about how Rubio’s abysmal finish in New Hampshire would make his nomination unprecedented, especially after he fails to win any of the early states?
A brokered convention would do irreparable damage to the party and greatly reduce the chances of victory in the general election. Sadly, that’s a contingency that’s more appealing to the power brokers of the Republican Establishment than a Cruz nomination. The last time someone like Cruz won the nomination was in 1980. Through a successful Presidency of Ronald Reagan, the Establishment schemed to reclaim prominence in the party. It took Bill Clinton’s Presidency to help them recover the precious power they craved and they’ve kept the Republican mantle away from conservatives ever since. They can’t afford another Reagan. That’s why they’d rather lose the election than allow a Cruz Presidency.
The desperate attempts to smear Cruz are manufactured by the Republican Establishment to give Rubio a chance, even if it’s microscopic. If the American people allow themselves to be fooled by the spin doctors, we’re guaranteeing a Democratic victory in November.