In Texas we like to say: (imagine hearing this with a strong West Texas twang) You can’t kill the snake until you get it out of the hole. Or at least that is what my Dad use to say. Perry was poking the snake in the hole. And why you ask?
Romney: [O]ver the last several years, 40 percent, almost half the jobs created in Texas were created for illegal aliens, illegal immigrants.
Perry: That is an absolute falsehood on its face, Mitt.
Romney: It’s actually…
Perry: That is — that is absolutely incorrect, sir.
Romney: Well, take a look at the study.
Perry: There’s a third — there’s been a third party take a look at that study, and it is absolutely incorrect.
So, who is correct? Where did Romney get his information for his TV spot?
Gov. Rick Perry has made Texas job growth a big part of his pitch to voters. Now an immigration research group says immigrants, legal and illegal, have been the main beneficiaries of the state’s employment gains since 2007.
More than half of Texas job growth between 2007 and 2011 went to immigrants, according to a study released Thursday by the Center for Immigration Studies, or CIS, a Washington, D.C., research group that supports lower immigration levels.
“Even though natives made up most of the growth in potential workers, most of the job growth went to immigrants,” said the report, written by Steven Camarota and Ashley Monique Webster.
But what about the report’s substance?
The CIS report, which is based on Current Population Survey data from the U.S. Census Bureau, uses two distinct methodologies to measure how much of the state’s job growth went to immigrants between mid-2007 and mid-2011.
The first methodology compares the net employment increase with the number of newly arrived immigrants holding a job. By that yardstick, newly arrived immigrants accounted for 29 percent of the growth in Texas’ working age population (ages 16 to 65) between mid-2007 and mid-2011. But they accounted for about 81 percent of the overall increase in employment.
The second methodology compares the net increase in employment with the net increase in immigrant employment. According to that measure, the increase in the number of working-age immigrants accounted for 31 percent of the increase in the state’s overall working-age population between mid-2007 to mid-2011. But they accounted for about 54 percent of employment growth.
Pia Orrenius, an economist and immigration expert at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, called the first methodology “misleading.”
“You’re comparing gross inflows to net job creation,” she said. “You have to compare net to net.”
Orrenius said the second methodology was more reliable. As for finding that immigrants accounted for about half the employment increase, that’s “typical for the nation” she said.
A recent study claiming “immigrants (legal and illegal) have been the primary beneficiaries of [Texas’ job] growth since 2007” was inaccurate because it relied on flawed methodology.
The main contention in the study by the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) was, “Of jobs created in Texas since 2007, 81 percent were taken by newly arrived immigrant workers (legal and illegal).” It goes on to assert, backing up its numbers with data from government sources, that, “…between the second quarter of 2007, right before the recession began, and the second quarter of 2011, total employment in Texas increased by 279,000. Of this, 225,000 jobs went to immigrants (legal and illegal) who arrived in the United States in 2007 or later.”
CIS also claimed that half of the newly-arrived immigrants were illegally in America. While a case can be made that these numbers are off using Department of Homeland Security data showing that the amount of illegal immigrants getting new jobs in Texas (60,000) was less than half number claimed in the CIS report (153,880), the greater issue was the flawed methodology that led to the report’s most widely-reported claim.
Looking at the total number of jobs created in our dynamic and complex economy shows the fault of this claim.
Using CIS’ methodology for counting the impact of immigration on jobs it might be said that immigrants were responsible for 169 percent of net business creation in Texas in 2007 and 2008.
Lastly, the CIS study notes that Texas’ current unemployment rate isn’t much better than the national average. However, it is important to point out that Texas has received an inflow of 781,542 domestic job seekers and their families in the past 10 years, with that number accelerating more recently. This has acted to inflate the unemployment rate in Texas. On the other end of the ledger, Americans moving to Texas in search of a better life have acted to reduce the unemployment rate of states such as New York and Massachusetts where 1,570,310 and 328,695 people, respectively, have moved out. This latter point has been largely ignored in the national debate about the impact on jobs that policies on taxes, regulations and the legal climate have.
So, while Romney was touting 4.7% unemployment in Massachusetts, what he neglected to say was that people were leaving Massachusetts in droves for greener pastures.
How can you trust a man who puts up smear websites with false & mis-leading information. Romney cannot be trusted.