Diary

Rasmussen: KY 49 McCain, 39 Obama

I was just looking at Rasmussen Reports and I noticed a state poll that could be big trouble for Barack as far as Rasmussen polls go, which as we all know is the most on target of all the polling firms out there. It is from the Bluegrass state where McCain leads Obama by a 49-39%. At first glance you would think this is good news for my Junior senator being down only ten in the reddest of red states, but looking back at the KY Democratic primary I had to ask myself how could he only be down 10. In the exit poll among Democrats Obama only had a lead of 50-32% and 55% percent of voters were not satisfied with Obama winning the nomination. This would tend to indicate a 25 point win for McCain in November.

National polling has not suggested that Obama has made enough inroads with Clinton voters to explain the contradiction in the Rasmussen and exit polls coming from a healing process within the party. Is Rasmussen overstating the Obama vote or is that KY Republicans have not rallied around McCain enough for a bigger margin of victory? If Rasmussen is overstating the Obama vote in each state here is a look at the Obama vote in recent battleground states done by Rasmussen from 7/22 to 7-31:

NM +5PA +5NH +6FL +1CO +7OH -6

Could it be that Obama’s Worst Poll ever just got worse?

Links:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/oldercontent/home/mostrecentarticles/mostrecentarticleshttp://www.rasmussenreports.com/publiccontent/politics/election20082/2008presidentialelection/kentucky/election2008kentuckypresidential_electionhttp://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#KYDEM