Diary

Thoughts on PPP's 10/23 CO Governor's Race Poll

PPP released a new poll today on the Colorado Governor’s race. While I’m no expert on dissecting polls, I would like to share some thoughts.

PPP is the official Pollster for Dailykos. To my mind, that implies some bias. You can decide for yourself if this is a factor. Note that the Denver Post has also come out with a poll which is so partisan it’s not even worth bothering with.

PPP shows Democrat Hickenlooper’s support at 47%. That would be a surprise, as Hickenlooper has been stuck at 44-45% for months now. If this is true it means that every single undecided in the race just broke democratic a week before the election. Grain of salt on this number.

PPP also has Maes at 5%, down from 9% in Friday’s Magellan poll. Not buying this either. The few supporters Maes has left are hard core. He didn’t lose half of them in a week. I think Maes will continue to erode, but that erosion will slow down now that he is left with only the true believers. There are still Maes yard signs around.

PPP has Tancredo at 44%. Magellan had him at 43% three days ago (and one day before the PPP poll started running). That’s two confirming data points within the margin of error.

My take on all this – unless Maes supporters are flocking to Hickenlooper, I’d guess that PPP has the Dem a little high and Maes a little low. If that is so, and if Tancredo is really polling 43-44%, that means we have a real shot at winning this race. The key will move another couple of points worth of support from Maes to Tancredo and get the message out that it’s OK to vote Tancredo to those on the right who still haven’t voted.