Diary

Calexit would result in the US becoming America again.

Seton Motley | Red State | RedState.com

Well, at least a damn straight more conservative. If California decided to leave the country, their Congressional delegation of 39 communists, 10 RINO-progressives, and 4 relatively conservative congress critters would not be part of our Congress anymore, along with two communist senators. Presidential electoral college votes shift bigly as well (as shown later on). While only 4% of the Senate would effectively be less progressive, the House would undergo a seismic shift to the right that would most probably result in a permanent majority for the Republican Party, though membership in the GOP itself is not an indication of conservatism, as have known for years, finalized through Obamacare repeal’s failure.

But the Reapportionment Act of 1929 stipulates that the Congressional makeup must remain at 435 representatives in the House. That means that California’s 53 representatives would get divvied up among the other states, and under current law, a strict reapportionment formula has to be followed.

The apportionment methodology currently used is the method of equal proportions to guarantee that no transfer of a seat (from one state to another) will reduce the ratio between the numbers of persons per representative in any two states. This ensures that proportions remain equal in the majority of states. Here is a link to a more nerdy explanation involving square roots and whatnot (Repportionment method).

Fear not, fellas. I already crunched the numbers. In addition, I wanted to ensure a more realistic population model, so I took the projected population growth for 2020 based upon Census data as well as trends based in voter registration and election participation. This is why that even with the loss of a state and its ensuing members being divvied up, three states actually LOST one representative from the 2010 Census: New York (from 28 to 27), Pennsylvania (18 to 17), and West Virginia (3 to 2).

So let’s go right to the top: 2 states get double-digit increases, with Florida leading the pack with an increase of 12 (27 to 39), with Texas one behind (35 to 46). Texas is now the Big Kahuna with 46 representatives, with Florida seven behind at 39.

While Arizona nets 6 new representatives, it represents a huge 40% jump from 6 to 15 members. Finally, North Carolina rounds out the final state with more than a two-representative jump, a total of 4 (from 13 to 17). Six states (Georgia, Maryland, Nevada, Oregon, Virginia, and Washington) increase their membership by 2 critters. The final states to obtain an increase, each by one, are Colorado, Idaho, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, and Tennessee. Every other state got nothin’s.

Now to the Electoral College: As we lose two senators in the ensuing reapportionment, the total electoral vote count is lowered to 536 (including Washington DC’s three Democrat votes). That means the total electoral votes a candidate would need to win the presidency would be 269. Not a big difference, but consider the fact that of the 53 votes lost, between Texas, Florida and Arizona’s gains, the GOP candidate has just conceivably swung over 100 points. And keep in mind that with such an increase in representation, the balance will have to shift to the right in the caliber of candidate we put out. However, Congress remains the most important factor for now, and we’ll just have to take the candidates as they come, resting assured that the Democrats will not have much likelihood at winning, unless they go all-out blue dog, which isn’t even in the real of possibility any longer.

So to recap: If California goes all-out confederate / Brexit on us, we solidify the House and the Executive Branch, and with the ensuing movement, we can take back our country in relative short order.

OK, no more unicorn farts. Back to Trumpland USA, along with Antifa, CNN, and Black Lives Matter.

Here is the chart. (Since I cannot work with images in the Diary, this is the best I can do.)

ST – w/o CA – with CA – diff
FL – 39 – 27 – 12
TX – 46 – 35 – 11
AZ – 15 – 9 – 6
NC – 17 – 13 – 4
GA – 16 – 14 – 2
MD – 10 – 8 – 2
NV – 6 – 4 – 2
OR – 7 – 5 – 2
VA – 13 – 11 – 2
WA – 12 – 10 – 2
CO – 8 – 7 – 1
ID – 3 – 2 – 1
LA – 7 – 6 – 1
MA – 10 – 9 – 1
MI – 15 – 14 – 1
MN – 9 – 8 – 1
MO – 9 – 8 – 1
MT – 2 – 1 – 1
NJ – 13 – 12 – 1
TN – 10 – 9 – 1
UT – 5 – 4 – 1
AL – 7 – 7 – 0
AK – 1 – 1 – 0
AR – 4 – 4 – 0
CT – 5 – 5 – 0
DE – 1 – 1 – 0
HI – 2 – 2 – 0
IL – 18 – 18 – 0
IN – 9 – 9 – 0
IA – 4 – 4 – 0
KS – 4 – 4 – 0
KY – 6 – 6 – 0
ME – 2 – 2 – 0
MS – 4 – 4 – 0
NE – 3 – 3 – 0
NH – 2 – 2 – 0
NM – 3 – 3 – 0
ND – 1 – 1 – 0
OH – 16 – 16 – 0
OK – 5 – 5 – 0
RI – 2 – 2 – 0
SC – 7 – 7 – 0
SD – 1 – 1 – 0
VT – 1 – 1 – 0
WI – 8 – 8 – 0
WY – 1 – 1 – 0
NY – 27 – 28 – -1
PA – 17 – 18 – -1
WV – 2 – 3 – -1