Diary

Ladbrokes Betting Site Has Trump Being Impeached at Even Odds

Trump Derangement Syndrome has gone so batty, it has affected actual betting lines. Specifically, Ladbrokes of London puts out political odds for people to bet on. As I am a database developer for several sports bet handicappers, I occasionally look at odds-making when it comes to predicting events that go beyond the sporting world. Polls are essentially meaningless; InTrade proved that back when they were “legal.” But foreign sites are more indicative of the “fringe” bettor, as well as how the mainstream media affects actual perception.

And that perception leads to this: The odds of Donald Trump having to leave office because of impeachment or resignation before the first term is Even-Steven. The official odds are 1.90, which means that for every dollar you bet, if your bet wins, you win 90 cents (plus your original dollar).

So if you bet that Trump completes is first term, your dollar will win you 90 cents. Conversely, if you bet that Trump has to leave office via impeachment or resignation, and that happens, your dollar will win you 90 cents (plus your original dollar). (The ten cents missing is actually the service charge, or “vigorish” charged by the bookmaker as their transaction fee.)

Please note that traumatic events automatically void all affected bets. I don’t have to spell out such events, though I cannot say with specificity what level Ladbrokes will put out to void any bets.

In addition, Ladbrokes’ odds for Trump being reelected gives odds at 2 to 1 (against). In other words, if you bet a dollar that Trump will be reelected, and he is reelected, your dollar will win you two dollars (plus your original dollar). Conversely, if you want to bet against his reelection (which includes first-term impeachment or resignation, loss in primary, or loss in general election), then your dollar will only win you 50 cents (plus your original dollar).

To put this in perspective: Obama had no such odds with regard to impeachment, resignation, or whatnot. The fact that there is substantive interest to the point that Ladbrokes spends a considerable amount booking odds for serious bettors indicates a massive, major indictment of the mainstream media and popular culture.

And let’s be frank: If you wanted to tie up your money for four years for a 90% ROI, a bet on Trump leaving office before 2017 is a very safe bet. My Birmingham, UK-based handicapper has put out about 10,000 GBP through various bookmaking accounts (bet limit is 1,500 GBP, about $1,800).

You can also determine other odds from this screenshot taken from Ladbrokes. Suffice to say that no Democrat would undergo such negative odds.