Diary

Iowa Caucus open prediction diary ( Who do YOU think is gonna win?)

Well, having just spend several hours this fine Sunday morning watching multiple talking heads  admit they don’t have a clue,I though it’s time to let Red Staters have their say.  Here’s your chance to step up and  call it as you see it, and tell us why. Remember, this is NOT what you hope will happen, but what you think might occur tomorrow night .

Democrats: For me, this is actually the easier prediction. Bernie wins by about 5 points. Latest poll shows Hillary with a slight lead, but well within the MOE. IOW, it tells us NOTHING. However, considering that a year ago she had 50 point lead over Sanders; we can definitely say that the trend ain’t her friend.  Also, I suspect that the last poll doesn’t reflect Friday’s email dump. There’s also the “O’Malley element.” He’s at 3%, which means that in most of the smaller Democrat caucuses, Martin won’t be able to remain viable. I’ll bet almost 90% of his support migrates to Bernie. So that makes it a Bernie win by 5%...but might actually hit 7-8%.

Republicans:  After the Iowa poll came out yesterday, showing Trump with 28% of the vote, I wrote that the big take away was that 72% of Iowa Republicans can’t stand Trump. I think his support is baked in at 25%. I expect he will UNDERPERFORM his final poll number, because it doesn’t reflect how many Iowans are really pissed at him for skipping the debate. Trump might win by 2-3 points, but there’s a chance for a YUGE upset, with Cruz just getting the win.

Something else to consider: After NH, the GOP field will be cut in half at the least.   Whoever drops out, be it a Santorum, Huckabee, Fiorina, Jeb! Kasich, Christie, Paul…do you honestly see a whole lot of their supporters migrating to Trump? I don’t, and for me, that’s the story in a nutshell: The ceiling of Trump’s support is, at best 30%, and when you add to that a 60% UNFAVORABILITY,  it doesn’t quite cut it.

So sound off, explain your reasoning, and we’ll see  in a day who has bragging rights!!!