Diary

Syrian refugees, illegal immigration, the Tom Bradley effect, and the 2016 election.

Somehow the question of whether or not the US should accept tens of thousands of Syrian refugees has merged with the issue of what to do about the tens of millions who are already here illegally in the US.

Nearly all Democrats, and most of the MSM are pushing the view that we must be “compassionate,”  stand up in unison and recite Emma Lazarus,  and open our borders, and our pockets. to anyone who is in need (and can manage to get here.) [mc_name name=’Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’G000535′ ], the Democrat self-appointed at-large congressman from  Mexico and Central America, recently accused Republicans of either being afraid of, and/or not caring about, 3 year old Muslim boys.

What’s interesting about this attempt at linkage of the Syrian refugee problem with illegal immigration; and by extension, the effort to win support for Obama’s plan to import 65,000 Syrian refugees, is that Democrats believe that Americans can somehow be “shamed” into acquiescence.

As Trump’s support continues to grow, based  in large part upon his promise to deport all illegals, much is made of several polls which show that a majority of Americans favor some pathway to normalization/legalization of those here illegally. Indeed, some polls actually purport to show that a majority of Republicans also agree, again based upon compassionate grounds/Christian values..whatever.

Note if you will the dichotomy here. Democrats attempt to convince GOP legislators that most of the party will back a comprehensive solution, yet these same people are now suddenly transformed into jingoistic redneck yahoos when it comes to Syrian refugees. As if!

But about those aforementioned polls…

It’s risky at best to cite polling data as a basis for formulating policy. The not-so-sweet-“science” of polling has a lousy track record of later. See Matt Bevin for example. Or rather, see Jack Conway. Or maybe Wendy David, who was going to turn Texas blue…

There’s something at work here, a phenomenon which Democrats and their supporters refuse to recognize.

It has a name. It’s the Tom Bradley effect. 

Tom Bradley was the black mayor of Los Angeles, and also the city’s former police commissioner. In 1982 he was all but anointed as the next governor of California (and the first black to hold the office) Multiple polls taken during the campaign showed him with a very comfortable lead, and even the vaunted exit polls (remember  those?) on election day showed him winning easily.

Except he lost.

So of course, Californians were immediately deemed racist for rejecting Bradley. No credence was given to the fact Californians were rejecting Bradley’s results as mayor of Los Angeles, not to mention the mess Jerry “Moonbeam” Brown had made of California the previous eight years. Voters wanted a change.

So, instead of wanting to be typecast as racist, because no credence would be given to the fact that they were rejecting Brown based on his lack of competence, voters conned the pollsters.

And I believe we are going to see a repeat of the Bradley effect, big time, in  2016.

I believe a near-majority of Democrats, especially blacks and union members (the two core constituencies of the Democrat party) OPPOSE amnesty, and also oppose admitting Syrian refugees.

I’m convinced that more than 80% ( if not higher) of Republicans are strongly opposed to any form of amnesty, and probably 100% virulently oppose admitting Syrian refugees.

And this is going to translate into electoral doom for Democrats next November. Hillary’s poll numbers will far exceed the actual results. Many won’t want to be accused of not voting for a female, but in fact they won’t;  and not because of her sex, but because of her advocacy for amnesty and admitting the Syrian refugees.

Also, Democrat turnout will be significantly damped down, as many who won’t vote for any Republican will find it a lot easier to just stay home.

The Democrats will thus have no chance of retaking the Senate. In fact, I think there will be at least one, if not two unexpected Democrat losses.  The GOP will gain House seats, and a few big name Democrats will be turned out by an angry electorate.

“You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”*

*(Supposedly attributed to Abraham Lincoln, but not verified. Seems fitting, however, doesn’t it?)