Diary

The best possible outcome in 2016 for conservative Republicans: win the WH, hold the House, LOSE the Senate

Sometimes you do have to throw out the baby with the bath water; and yes, to make an omelet….you need to break a lot of eggs.

Just about  every day we read a front-page piece on RS about the total, utter uselessness of the present GOP controlled Senate. It is tiring; it is frustrating; it is aggravating, and it sadly, it  is true.

I’m not going to recount the multitude of sins committed by McConnell et al,  but the piece today about [mc_name name=’Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’K000360′ ]’s craven vote to support sanctuary cities was for me, the last straw. The RSCC is going to waste millions on a losing effort to try and elect, well…in effect another Democrat.

So maybe it’s time to step back and look at the big picture. What would be the best possible outcome in 2016 for conservative Republicans and yes, for the country?

1. Win the White House. Right now, we have a very good chance of doing that, not to mention of electing a conservative president. The Democrat field is in trouble, if not outright chaos.

2. Hold the House. Because of GOP dominance of the state houses and legislatures, and their power of redistricting, Republican control of the House seems assured. Nothing of course is guaranteed in politics, but if I were a betting man, I’d say that the odds favor the Republicans controlling the House for the remainder of [mc_name name=’Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’P000197′ ]’s lifetime.

And the House GOP conference will grow increasingly more conservative. With many safe seats, the general election result  will in fact be decided by the GOP primary, and more and more of the GOPe squishes will be beaten as a highly motivated  base turns  out.

3. LOSE the Senate. No, this is not a simplistic rendition of “it makes no difference. Reid runs the place now anyway.” Two years of divided government won’t be that bad. With a Republican in the WH, the rampant use of executive orders stops. And if the Senate Democrats want to oppose everything, fine. Let them.  We can wait. Time to take the long view.

Think about it. First, that’s how we finally get rid of the present GOPe leadership. Mitch, you had  your chance, you blew it. The army gets a new commanding general. “Leader,” whether majority or minority, is NOT a permanent position.

But most importantly, look ahead  to 2018. There are 33 senate seats up that year. 23 are Democrat, 8 are GOP, and two are IND who caucus with the Democrats.

Not one of the GOP seats is really at risk. There is a better than even chance that due to either retirement(s) or a primary,  several new GOP senators will be MORE conservative.

But the Democrats; they have a really big problem. Here’s a link to the Wikipedia article on the 2018 Senate elections. Go through the list yourself.  Of those 23 seats, there are a baker’s dozen that could be in trouble. At the very least, the Dems will have to spend a fortune to defend them all. And some Dems will thus be willing to vote against their leadership for two years.

And don’t forget: if, as seems likely, Joe Manchin decides to retire in 2018, that seat is a given for Republicans.

The GOP is going to lose Senate seats in 2016. The question is: how many? Lose a few..and just manage to hold control. You’ll have an even weaker McConnell. And if you thought Reid was an SOB, wait until Chuckie Schumer takes over.

Or, blow it up now. Boot McConnell and Cornyn. Kill the power of the GOPe. There would likely be enough votes in the next GOP Senate caucus to support a real conservative……say, [mc_name name=’Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’L000577′ ].

And then, post 2018, with a solid GOP Senate majority..56-58, and a conservative leadership; then, if the Democrats block everything..then, THEN…if they don’t back down, we kill the filibuster.