Well, we conservatives and Republicans have been kept pretty busy for the last few weeks attempting to discern where the GOP is headed, and banging our heads against the wall, and each other, about Trump , so I thought I’d turn for a second to the Democrats.
The Bernie Sanders phenomena hasn’t got that much attention yet, but it soon will. He’s the far-left equivalent of Trump in many ways, tapping into a hunger, a thirst, and yes, an anger among the base on the left. His fund raising, especially with small donors, is soaring. Despite what they’re saying in public, Hillary, Inc. has to be very, very worried…and they really don’t have a clue how to deal with it. If they start to attack Sanders ( hey, after all, it’s what Clintons do best) they risk angering the base AND also giving Sanders’ campaign stature and importance.
Elsewhere on today’s front page, the always erudite streiff has a diary showing how Obama is becoming an anchor draped around Hillary’s neck as she attempts to try and somehow distance herself from The One.
Right now, based on polling and trend lines, you could probably get 3:1 odds that Hillary loses BOTH the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. (Personally, I think it’s a lock.) If Biden gets into the race, that likely hurts her even more. And we still don’t know where the email, and other scandals, will take us, nor what her appearance before Gowdy’s Benghazi committee will reveal.
So the question then, is as follows:
If Hillary Clinton loses BOTH the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary, is her campaign finished?
Will she stay in, or give up? Before Bernie, she was anticipating a coronation; now, does she have the temperament, or the desire to stay in and fight it out, and likely face further humiliating defeats.
She’s demonstrated over and over that basically, she sucks as a campaigner…she’s aloof, staged, and unable to connect with, let alone motivate, people.
I believe that she’d drop out of the race. They’d try and find some face-saving way of spinning it (see, Chelsea is unable to find decent child care, so grandma Hillary will babysit while Chelsea’s busy cooking the books at the foundation, and maybe planning to move to New Jersey, so that she can primary Bob Menendez..assuming he’s not already behind bars. Hey, it worked for her mom, parachuting into NY)
What’s very interesting for Republicans is that just when the GOP primary process really starts to take off, the person that all along everyone assumed they’d be facing in November, and who they’ve all been whacking away at for almost a year..is suddenly a “Gone Girl.”
It’s like when the USSR suddenly imploded, and the US military, which spent 40 years preparing to oppose the Red Army pouring through the Fulda Gap, found itself with no enemy.
That could considerably reshape the GOP field. Take just one example: Carly Fiorina has jumped into the top tier, ( and is expected to keep rising in the polls) based largely on her focused, and very effective attacks on Hillary. Much of her appeal is that she would be the most effective opponent for Hillary, as she’s not afraid to throw everything, including the kitchen sink (is that sexist, BTW?) at Hillary. What would she do then?
The GOP might have refrained from raising the age question against Hillary ( demeaning to women, etc…yada, yada, yada), but against a decrepit, doddering Sanders or Biden, it’s fair game. And the comparison of those two old geezers against a young, vigorous, fresh, Rubio, or Cruz..or any of the other candidates, could be significant.
One last twist to consider. Suppose next month, Biden decides NOT to run. Then, 6 months later, Hillary drops out. The Dems are now confronted with the prospect of a
Eugene McCarty, George McGovern…….er, Bernie Sanders as their nominee.
The Democrat establishment would turn to Biden, begging him to run. While it would be too late for him to qualify for most of the future primaries, there are enough Democrat “superdelegates” (20%) at the convention, that Sanders could fairly easily be kept from a majority before July in Philadelphia.
And it would be a given that Hilary would throw her support and $$$) to Biden ( possibly with the understanding that there would be a pardon for her in the near future?)
That would make the Democrat convention, shall we say, “very interesting” at the least. And a successful effort to deny Sanders the nomination would likely tear the party apart, and give Republicans a good chance at running the table, and convincingly so.