Diary

After Hillary loses in 2016, what's the future of the Democrat Party?

Among the silliest books ever published are those that attempt to extrapolate a single event into a semi-apocalyptic vision of the future. Kevin Phillips did so in 1969 with “The Emerging Republican Majority.”  Not to be outdone, in 2003, John Judas produced “The Emerging Democratic Majority.”  

My personal “favorite,” as one who spent a career in the financial services industry, is James Glassman’s 2000 offering, “Dow 36,000.”  Yup.

It’s rather easy to generate such verbiage after the fact. There’s always a marketplace of “true believers” who will generate the royalty checks.

What’s far harder is to make the cataclysmic prediction BEFORE the triggering event. But I shall bravely sally forth, and state the obvious:

AFTER HILLARY LOSES IN 2016, THE DEMOCRAT PARTY FACES AT LEAST 10 YEARS OF IRRELEVANCY, AND SEVERE IN-FIGHTING AMONG THE CORE CONSTITUENCY GROUPS OF THE DEMOCRAT COALITION.

And you don’t even have to buy the book…….

Let’s assume that it’s the day after Election Day 2016. Hillary lost, for a whole variety of reasons. The Democrats did not retake the Senate ( indeed, they only picked up one seat) and the GOP had a net loss of only 4 seats in the House. Republicans maintained their dominant majority in governors, and a near stranglehold on state legislatures.  This scenario, while not a lock to be sure, is quite plausible.

What then, is the state of the Democrat party nationally?

Who becomes the early favorite for the 2020 nomination? (The mayor of San Antonio? As if…)

Does [mc_name name=’Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’P000197′ ] run again for Minority Leader? If she steps down, who replaces her?  It will be a titanic struggle between the left, more left, and most left elements in the House. The House Democrat caucus will be far more liberal…almost way out there at the fringes of leftish-extremism.

Chuckie Schumer will be the next Senate minority leader. His caucus will also be more hard left, more, (dare I say it)  “extreme.”

OK, I could go on and on, but you get the idea.

2016 is potentially the Democrat’s Waterloo, or perhaps their “gotterdammerung” says it best. And what is most frightening ( if you’re a liberal, a Democrat, or a member of the MSM, is that absolutely nobody  in that camp is looking one second beyond Nov 8, 2016.

Democrats are presently playing their own version of political Texas hold ’em, going “all in” on Hillary as their potential nominee. But they fail to see that after she loses, to quote Gertrude Stein, “there’s no there, there…”

Given the propensity of the American people, since 1980, to give their presidents two terms, Republicans will  hold the White House until 2024. The Republicans will thus likely be able to choose the next five Supreme Court justices. Republican control of the House is all but assured until 2022, and with GOP dominance of the states, redistricting may well lock in Republican dominance for another decade.

Having failed to recapture the Senate, the 2018, and 2020 elections offer no realistic hope of a Democrat majority. What’s more likely is that by 2022, 80% of current Democrat senators will have either retired or lost their seats.

To emerge victorious in chess, and war, requires the ability to see many moves into the future. Politics is similar. The Democrats presently have acute tunnel vision. They can’t see one second past 11/8/2016.

Or maybe they’re afraid to do so.

My first involvement in politics came in 1964. There I was, at age 15, handing out  (or rather,  attempting to do so) Goldwater literature at a Bronx subway station. Not wise.  A trial by fire. “In your heart, you know he’s right!” morphed into “In your guts you know he’s nuts!”  I heard that over and over. My parents (life-time Democrats) thought I needed psychiatric help. My rabbi actually devoted his Yom Kippur sermon that year to “why Jews shouldn’t vote for Goldwater.”

Gawd, did we ever get clobbered. We were told by the pundits that the GOP was doomed, it was “so over.” We shouldn’t even bother to try next time out.

But life’s funny that way.  And two separate tracks began the rebirth of Republican conservatism that 16 years later put Ronald Reagan in the White House.

First, conservative thinkers and strategists saw in Goldwater’s defeat a solid floor upon which to rebuild the party. The era of the eastern establishment, “country-club” Republican, was about to end.

Second, overseas events, always unimagined and unforseen, intervened. Viet Nam tore the nation, and the Democrat party, apart. The same thing is happening in the Middle east today.

And it appears that the Democrat party is about to return to its urban roots, and run on the need for a new platform to “save our cities!”

Hello!!! They tried that once before.

Anyone remember John Vliet Lindsay? He actually ran for president on the platform that being mayor of NYC is “the second toughest job in America.”

This from a doofus who couldn’t get the streets plowed, or stop a subway strike.

And yet we have a modern-day Lindsay in the Democrat party. Bill de Blasio. He’s actually thinking, er dreaming… about running.

Conservatives have long held that the Democrat party is evil, and that the GOP is stupid. There’s a great deal of truth in that.

Yet I’d suggest that the Democrat party is now both evil AND stupid.

Evil, for obvious reasons.

Stupid, because they do not see what is about to happen. They are so focused on Hillary, on the need for the Clinton restoration, that they do not see that their party is imploding, and headed for a staggering defeat.

In the words of the great Satchel Paige, “the light at the end of the tunnel is probably a freight train coming right at you..”