Much has been written of late about Obama’s behavior towards Netanyahu. Just the other day, we heard talk that the administration would begin to “reassess” the relationship with Israel.
Yes, Obama is both petty and petulant, and worked overtime to try and oust Bibi from office. But the comments and actions coming from the White House are so out of proportion to Bibi’s supposed “faux pas” in addressing Congress, that one has to believe that there is a far deeper motive at work here.
Obama has 20 months left in office. He’s attempting to continue his “fundamental transformation” of America by pushing, by any means, a whole slew of domestic initiatives. From his perspective, he’s been successful at this these last six years.
However, his foreign policy, or rather lack of it, has been a complete and utter failure; an unmitigated disaster. I need need not recount each and every event.
The absolute LAST thing Obama wants is for an all-out war to break out in the Middle East while he is still in office. Not only would he be blamed for much of it, but he would have to deal with it, and that is something for which he has shown no propensity, or ability.
Iran continues on the path to achieving a nuclear weapons capability. Netanyahu has correctly termed the Iranian mullahs an “existential threat” to Israel. One must take him at his word; that he will not allow Iran to achieve a nuclear capability.
Israel has twice before shown the willingness to pre-emptively act to protect itself: the 1981 strike against Saddam’s reactor, still under construction, at Osirk; and more recently, the 2007 strike against a suspected reactor in Syria.
Iran today is far closer today to a nuclear capability than in either of the two prior events, yet the Israelis acted when they felt it was necessary to do so.
Thus we can reasonable conclude that Israel will strike against Iran when it deems necessary, before the threat is active… and won’t be deterred by anything the US, the UN, or any other nation says.
An Israeli strike would most likely result in a full blown war in the Middle East. Iran would attack, probably bringing Iraq into the conflict. Hamas and Hezbollah would strike with rockets and terrorists attacks, and Syria might well jump in.
Though Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan would initially attempt to stay out, heightened pressure from extremist factions inside those countries would destabilize those regimes, and one or more might collapse.
In short, an utter and total mess.
Which Obama wants absolutely no part of. He wants to spend his remaining 20 months in office further ruining America, and then he wants to get the hell out of Dodge. Period.
So this overwhelming desire to avoid a major conflict may indeed explain Obama’s actions.
Israel is well aware of all these scenarios, and will act when the risk to itself of a nuclear Iran is greater than that of much of the Middle East engulfed in war.
Israel came very close to losing the 1973 Yom Kippur war. The surprise attacks by Syria and Egypt were almost successful. The Soviets had secretly supplied advanced surface to air missiles, and these all but decimated the IAF.
The US initially wanted to stay out of the conflict. Israeli PM Golda Meir ordered that missiles and planes be armed with nuclear warheads. This was “leaked” to the US.
Nixon then order a massive resupply of Israel’s military hardware, including the transfer of 40 F-4 Phantoms to the IAF. USAF pilots flew the fighters into Israel, and while the planes were being armed and refueled, the US insignia was removed, the Star of David painted on, and Israeli pilots launched.
So, could Obama be telling Netanyahu that if he launches an attack against the Iranian nuke sites, that US military aid will NOT be forthcoming. The distances in the Middle East are so short, the countries so proximate to each other, that any conflict will likely last a week at best. Iran succeeds, or it is stopped. It won’t be a protracted conflict. And if the US delays resupply for a few days, say we don’t ship additional Patriot missiles…it’s over.
Obama is thus telling Netanyahu that the deal..and we will have a bad deal…without Congressional concurrence, will push the ultimate denouement to after Obama leaves office. That’s all Obama cares about.
Netanyahu probably wants to accommodate Obama. Why risk decimating Israel?
The problem here is that the mullahs can also read the tea leaves. It is actually to their advantage to have a war with Israel while Obama is still in office, as opposed to when they might have to confront a Republican president.
So,there we have it. Obama, desperate to avoid getting bogged down in a major Middle East conflict, is actually, by his callousness and ineptitude, increasing the likelihood that one will occur before he leaves office.